Atlanta @ New York picks
Citi Field
ATL vs NYM Picks
MLB Picks
Total Bases


Andrew Caley
Senior Betting Analyst
Have yourself a June, Juan Soto! After hitting another two dingers last night, the Mets' star slugger is hitting .325 with a 1.238 OPS, 10 home runs, and 18 RBIs over 23 games this month. He's topped 1.5 total bases 14 times in his last 25 games. At this price, it's worth backing him to do so again tonight.
Total RBIs

Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best batter in the majors.. Juan Soto is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage over Grant Holmes today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Juan Soto will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total RBIs

Ozzie Albies o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field.. Extreme flyball hitters like Ozzie Albies generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Griffin Canning.. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the New York Mets.. In the last 7 days, Ozzie Albies's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88.9-mph over the course of the season to 91.6-mph of late.. Ozzie Albies's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (18.4°) is significantly higher than his 14.2° figure last year.
Total RBIs

Sean Murphy o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his home run ability, Sean Murphy ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Sean Murphy is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Sean Murphy pulls many of his flyballs (36.6% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the New York Mets.. Ranking in the 93rd percentile for power, Sean Murphy has paced 33.3 long-balls per 600 plate appearances this year.
Total RBIs

Austin Riley o0.5 Total RBIs (+140)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his home run talent, Austin Riley ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Austin Riley is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.. Austin Riley hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball hitters like Austin Riley tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Griffin Canning.. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the New York Mets.
Total RBIs

Pete Alonso o0.5 Total RBIs (+135)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Pete Alonso projects as the 9th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Pete Alonso will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. The Barrel% of Pete Alonso has significantly improved, with an increase from 13.2% last year to 20.1% this year.
Total RBIs

Marcell Ozuna o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Marcell Ozuna pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the New York Mets.. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Marcell Ozuna's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.4-mph over the course of the season to 98.4-mph in recent games.
Total Bases

Marcell Ozuna o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Marcell Ozuna pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the New York Mets.. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Marcell Ozuna's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.4-mph over the course of the season to 98.4-mph in recent games.
Total Bases

Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Pete Alonso projects as the 9th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Pete Alonso will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. The Barrel% of Pete Alonso has significantly improved, with an increase from 13.2% last year to 20.1% this year.
Total Bases

Juan Soto o0.5 Total Bases (-180)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best batter in the majors.. Juan Soto is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage over Grant Holmes today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Juan Soto will hold that advantage in today's game.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Pete Alonso o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-110)
Projection 2.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Pete Alonso projects as the 9th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Pete Alonso will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. The Barrel% of Pete Alonso has significantly improved, with an increase from 13.2% last year to 20.1% this year.