Chicago @ Toronto picks
Rogers Centre
CHW vs TOR Picks
MLB Picks
Total Bases


Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst
Adrian Houser's .253 expected batting average ranks him in the 45th percentile in baseball, which doesn't bode well against a lineup that ranks in the Top 3 in hits and xBA. Additionally, the righty has struggled mightily in his two career starts against Toronto. He has a dreadful 9.58 ERA while allowing 12 runs in 10 1/3 innings over those appearances. One of the Jays who gives Houser fits is Toronto’s Alejandro Kirk. The Jays catcher has owned Houser, going a perfect 6-for-6 against him throughout his career, and I anticipate similar success tonight with the way he’s been swinging the bat lately.
Total RBIs

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+145)
Projection 0.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in MLB when it comes to his batting average skill.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for righty home runs.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 95°.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
Total RBIs

Miguel Vargas o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Miguel Vargas is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for righty home runs.. Miguel Vargas hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball bats like Miguel Vargas usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Chris Bassitt.
Total RBIs

Davis Schneider o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his home run ability, Davis Schneider ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for righty home runs.. Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest.. Davis Schneider has strong power (88th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (29% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Adrian Houser has a pitch-to-contact profile (13th percentile K%) — great news for Schneider.. Extreme flyball batters like Davis Schneider usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Adrian Houser.
Total RBIs

Andrew Benintendi o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Benintendi in the 85th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Andrew Benintendi is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. The #3 field in MLB for boosting home runs to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest.. Andrew Benintendi will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's game... and moreover, Bassitt has a large platoon split.
Total RBIs

Luis Robert Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+208)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Luis Robert Jr.'s BABIP ability is projected in the 87th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Luis Robert Jr. is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for righty home runs.. Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 95°.
Total RBIs

Addison Barger o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Addison Barger in the 78th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Addison Barger is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. The #3 field in MLB for boosting home runs to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest.. Batting from the opposite that Adrian Houser throws from, Addison Barger will have an advantage today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Miguel Vargas o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+120)
Projection 2.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Miguel Vargas is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for righty home runs.. Miguel Vargas hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball bats like Miguel Vargas usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Chris Bassitt.
Total Bases

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 2.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in MLB when it comes to his batting average skill.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for righty home runs.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 95°.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Ryan Noda o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-135)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The #3 field in MLB for boosting home runs to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 95°.. Because of Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Ryan Noda will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.. Ryan Noda has been hot lately, compiling a a 25% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power) in the last week's worth of games.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-155)
Projection 2.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in MLB when it comes to his batting average skill.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for righty home runs.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 95°.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.