Seattle @ Chicago picks

George Kirby has been better of late, but he's still susceptible to the long ball, giving up five home runs over his last four starts. The Cubs are fifth in home runs this year; among other things, they rank high in terms of offense. Matthew Boyd is pitching well, giving up two or fewer runs in four straight games. Take the better all-around team at home. 

Chicago lefty Matthew Boyd has been solid this season with a 2.79 ERA and 1.17 WHIP , and he is facing a potentially overachieving Seattle lineup on Friday. The Cubs send a solid lineup to the dish with a sixth-ranked wOBA and ISO against right-handed hurlers, too, and Chicago is 24-13 at home and have also won 43 of their last 68 games (+12.65 Units / 12% ROI).

I’m buying the DraftKings -105 as well and would go as low as -110 on this. It’s another tough spot for pitchers as Wrigley has 16-mph winds blowing out to Cal Raleigh territory in left field and it’s humid and 80 degrees. Boyd is not a K/inning pitcher and has averaged just 90 pitches per start across his last 10 games. He has yet to top 95 pitches over those 10 games and has a season-high of 98 pitches this year. He doesn’t have the longest of leashes. His Under 17.5 outs at +100 is also a great +EV play today but I hate Under outs in afternoon lineups as guys sometimes love to swing early which leads to a low pitch-per-inning rate. I’ll take the Under on a big number for a pitcher who does not get more than 95 pitches and 18 outs.

Let’s stay in Wrigley and fade the pitcher on the other side, as well. George Kirby has not been himself since returning back in late May. He’s made five starts, is walking batters, is giving up home runs, and is not getting as deep as he was last year because of the inefficiency. He is also coming off a season-high 101 pitches where he still only got 15 outs. Now he has to face an elite Chicago offense on the road with zero park factors in his favor. His ER total today is set at 3.5 which shows just how much scoring is possible today. Wind, ballpark, form, and coming off a season-high in pitches — there are plenty of reasons to back this Under this afternoon. 

Jorge Polanco is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in MLB, which generally leads to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Jorge Polanco pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.3% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.2°, Jorge Polanco has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 19.1° angle in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Moore in the 85th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in MLB, which generally leads to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Dylan Moore will have an advantage today.. Dylan Moore pulls many of his flyballs (38.9% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Randy Arozarena is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in MLB, which generally leads to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Randy Arozarena will have the upper hand today.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 19th-best hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. Wrigley Field has the shallowest left field dimensions in the league.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Bats such as Seiya Suzuki with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like George Kirby who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

When it comes to his batting average talent, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 10th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Wrigley Field has the shallowest left field dimensions in the league.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Julio Rodriguez will hold the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in today's matchup.

Mitch Garver is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in MLB, which generally leads to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Mitch Garver will have the handedness advantage over Matthew Boyd today.. Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (39% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Cal Raleigh as the game's 5th-best home run batter.. Cal Raleigh is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in MLB, which generally leads to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Matthew Boyd.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 7th-best batter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in MLB, which generally leads to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Kyle Tucker will hold the platoon advantage against George Kirby in today's matchup.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. With 7 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Matthew Boyd faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.. Considering the 1.22 difference between Matthew Boyd's 2.79 ERA and his 4.01 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league this year and figures to negatively regress in the future.. The 9.1% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners grades them out as the #10 offense in the league this year by this metric.

Jorge Polanco is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in MLB, which generally leads to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Jorge Polanco pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.3% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.2°, Jorge Polanco has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 19.1° angle in the last 14 days.