New York @ Atlanta picks

The Mets gambled a bit on converting Holmes back to a starter. So far, that attempt is paying off, as Holmes has pitched to a 2.87 ERA in his first 14 starts. The Braves will counter with Spencer Strider, who has been inconsistent since returning from a right hamstring strain. He started by losing his first four outings in his return, posting a 5.85 ERA in those games before finally getting a win against the hapless Rockies. 

Clay Holmes has posted a 7-3 record so far in 2025, tied for seventh-best in the big leagues, to go with a stingy 2.87 ERA, and I’m buying into that consistency. He’s hit the Under on this earned runs number in four of his past five outings, including five strong innings last Friday, when he yielded just three hits and a single run.

 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Pete Alonso as MLB's 9th-best home run batter.. Pete Alonso is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for RHB base hits.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of the day at 81°.

Juan Soto projects as the 4th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The #5 field in baseball for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Truist Park has the 4th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to better offense.

The #5 field in baseball for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Truist Park has the 4th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of the day at 81°.. Hitters such as Ozzie Albies with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Clay Holmes who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

When estimating his home run skill, Sean Murphy ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for RHB base hits.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report forecasts the least humid conditions on the slate at 75%.. Sean Murphy will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Olson as MLB's 18th-best home run batter.. Matt Olson is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The #5 field in baseball for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Truist Park has the 4th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to better offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 96th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for RHB base hits.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of the day at 81°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 97th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Austin Riley is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for RHB base hits.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of the day at 81°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. The #5 field in baseball for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of the day at 81°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 9th-most-favorable of the day for bats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.. The #5 field in baseball for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Truist Park has the 4th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to better offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Pete Alonso as MLB's 9th-best home run batter.. Pete Alonso is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for RHB base hits.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of the day at 81°.