New York @ Atlanta picks

After blowing a three-run lead late in last night’s game, the New York Mets are now mired in their longest losing streak of the season. It won’t be easy for New York to get back to their winning ways tonight, as they’ll have to overcome a rough pitching matchup on the road against a quality team like the Atlanta Braves. Both teams have largely been playing to the Over as of late. The Mets have hit the Over four times in a row now during their losing streak, while the Braves have done so in four of their last five outings. New York has played to totals of nine or more runs in seven of their last nine games. With two teams that have (or should have) deep and explosive lineups, and with one vulnerable starter, tonight’s total of 8.5 runs is too low for my comfort. I’m taking the Over.

An Under 14.5 out is always going to be sweaty, but Paul Blackburn is a perfect candidate to trust today on the road in Atlanta where there could be some rain and temps in the mid-to-high 80s. The New York starter’s last appearance was out of the bullpen five days ago where he threw just 17 pitches. He also got rocked and allowed four runs on four hits while recording just one out. 
In his two previous starts before that, he threw 71 and 77 pitches going 1-1 O/U on this number. There is a possibility that he has a blueprint today that might not include even pitching in the fifth inning. There is not much trust with Blackburn and this plus-money Under is worth the potential sweat. 

When estimating his home run ability, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 5th-best ballpark in the majors for righty BABIP.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense.. This game is expected to have the 3rd-most humid conditions of the day (77%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Francisco Lindor is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 5th-best ballpark in the majors for righty BABIP.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense.. This game is expected to have the 3rd-most humid conditions of the day (77%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best batter in the majors.. Juan Soto is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 5th-best field in the majors for lefty BABIP.. In Major League Baseball, Truist Park's CF fences are the shallowest.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense.

Pete Alonso projects as the 9th-best home run batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 5th-best ballpark in the majors for righty BABIP.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense.. This game is expected to have the 5th-most humid conditions of the day (76%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 97th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Austin Riley is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 5th-best ballpark in the majors for righty BABIP.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense.. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of the day (75%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 5th-best field in the majors for lefty BABIP.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense.. Drake Baldwin will have the handedness advantage over Paul Blackburn in today's matchup.. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Drake Baldwin has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.. Drake Baldwin will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 5th-best field in the majors for lefty BABIP.. In Major League Baseball, Truist Park's CF fences are the shallowest.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense.. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of the day (75%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Extreme groundball hitters like Ozzie Albies usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Paul Blackburn.

Alex Verdugo's batting average skill is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Alex Verdugo is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 5th-best field in the majors for lefty BABIP.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense.. Batting from the opposite that Paul Blackburn throws from, Alex Verdugo will have an advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Olson as the game's 17th-best home run hitter.. Matt Olson is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 5th-best field in the majors for lefty BABIP.. In Major League Baseball, Truist Park's CF fences are the shallowest.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Paul Blackburn in the 17th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching skills.. Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Paul Blackburn is projected to throw 77 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least of all pitchers on the slate.. The Atlanta Braves projected offense grades out as the 5th-best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.. It may be smart to expect better results for the Atlanta Braves offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.. The #5 venue in the majors for boosting base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.