Boston @ Seattle picks

Logan Gilbert makes his return to the mound after missing several weeks with an elbow issue. Rust and perhaps an unwillingness to push him too hard makes the plus money on the Red Sox an appealing bet.

Before going on the shelf, Logan Gilbert was 1-1 in six starts with an impressive 2.37 ERA, striking out 44 hitters in just 30 1/3 innings of work. That will be my focus because he’s always been a guy who misses a lot of bats. The 27-year-old racked up 220 punchouts in 208 2/3 frames last year for Seattle and has averaged 9 2/3 strikeouts per nine innings in his MLB career. 

Gilbert makes his first start since April 25. Before his injury, he ranked in the 99th percentile in strikeout rate. The Red Sox have the third-highest K-rate vs. right-handed pitchers this season. Gilbert also threw 72 pitches, striking out six over five innings in his final rehab start, so there should be few limitations on him here.

The #1 field in Major League Baseball for suppressing offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.. T-Mobile Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense.. The weather report projects the 6th-most favorable hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will bat from his weak side (0) today against Lucas Giolito. Typically, bats like Cal Raleigh who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Lucas Giolito.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Kristian Campbell has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.. Extreme flyball hitters like Kristian Campbell tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Logan Gilbert.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 14th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.

Home runs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball.. Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Rowdy Tellez will have an edge in today's game.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Rowdy Tellez will hold that advantage today.. The Barrel% of Rowdy Tellez has significantly improved, with an increase from 8.1% last year to 16% this year.. Rowdy Tellez has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.6-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 91-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 78th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Home runs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 14th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.. Despite posting a .280 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Trevor Story has had some very poor luck given the .027 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .307.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 78th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Home runs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 14th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.. Over the last two weeks, Ceddanne Rafaela's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.2-mph over the course of the season to 97.7-mph of late.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (20.3) implies that Ceddanne Rafaela has experienced some negative variance this year with his 14.1 actual HR/600.