Boston @ Seattle Picks & Props

T-Mobile Park projects as the #30 park in MLB for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). T-Mobile Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. The weather report projects the 6th-most favorable hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Lucas Giolito will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Julio Rodriguez in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the best out of every team on the slate today.

Roman Anthony is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Logan Gilbert throws from, Roman Anthony will have an advantage in today's matchup. Roman Anthony has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP. Roman Anthony has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball hitters like Roman Anthony tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Gilbert.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Kristian Campbell has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences today. Extreme flyball hitters like Kristian Campbell tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Logan Gilbert. Out of all the teams playing today, the 14th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.

Marcelo Mayer is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Logan Gilbert throws from, Marcelo Mayer will have the upper hand in today's game. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Marcelo Mayer has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Marcelo Mayer has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Out of all the teams playing today, the 14th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.

Home runs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Out of all the teams playing today, the 14th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners. Despite posting a .280 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Trevor Story has had some very poor luck given the .027 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .307.

Carlos Narvaez is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Home runs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Out of all the teams playing today, the 14th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners. Carlos Narvaez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph to 94.3-mph over the past 14 days. Ranked in the 88th percentile, Carlos Narvaez has one of the highest average exit velocities in baseball this year (92.1-mph).

Abraham Toro is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Abraham Toro pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences today. Out of all the teams playing today, the 14th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners. Over the past week, Abraham Toro's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.3-mph over the course of the season to 95.4-mph lately. Abraham Toro's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 15.6% to 18.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran as the 17th-best hitter in the majors when assessing his BABIP skill. Jarren Duran is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today. Jarren Duran will have the handedness advantage over Logan Gilbert in today's game. Jarren Duran is likely to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP. Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Home runs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Dominic Canzone will have an advantage in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Dominic Canzone will hold that advantage in today's game. In the last week, Dominic Canzone's maximum exit velocity (a favorable measure of recent form and raw power) has been 115.9-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in the game. As it relates to his batting average, Dominic Canzone has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .200 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .228.

Home runs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. David Hamilton will hold the platoon advantage against Logan Gilbert today. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so David Hamilton can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Out of all the teams playing today, the 14th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 78th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Home runs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Out of all the teams playing today, the 14th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners. Over the last two weeks, Ceddanne Rafaela's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.2-mph over the course of the season to 97.7-mph of late. Ceddanne Rafaela has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .303 mark is a fair amount lower than his .329 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Cole Young will have the handedness advantage over Lucas Giolito in today's matchup. Cole Young pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences today. Cole Young will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Cole Young has been zeroed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits lately, angling balls between -4° and 26° 64.3% of the time over the last 7 days.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Jorge Polanco ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jorge Polanco is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game. Jorge Polanco pulls many of his flyballs (38.9% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Jorge Polanco will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.282) implies that Jorge Polanco has suffered from bad luck this year with his .262 actual batting average.

Benjamin Williamson's BABIP ability is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Benjamin Williamson has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences today. Extreme flyball hitters like Benjamin Williamson tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Lucas Giolito. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Benjamin Williamson will hold that advantage today. With a .355 BABIP this year, Benjamin Williamson is positioned in the 91st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Randy Arozarena pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Randy Arozarena will hold that advantage today. In the last 7 days, Randy Arozarena's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96-mph over the course of the season to 98.7-mph of late.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, J.P. Crawford ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). J.P. Crawford is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Home runs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. J.P. Crawford will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lucas Giolito today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and J.P. Crawford will hold that advantage today.

Home runs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Rowdy Tellez will have an edge in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Rowdy Tellez will hold that advantage today. The Barrel% of Rowdy Tellez has significantly improved, with an increase from 8.1% last year to 16% this year. Rowdy Tellez has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.6-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 91-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cal Raleigh in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Cal Raleigh is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (43.1% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Cal Raleigh will hold that advantage in today's game. Cal Raleigh has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.4-mph average to last year's 94.9-mph figure.

Connor Wong has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.