Cleveland @ Seattle picks
T-Mobile Park
CLE vs SEA Picks
MLB Picks
Earned Runs Allowed


Ed Scimia
Betting Analyst
George Kirby has been far better in June, allowing two runs in each of his last two outings. He was especially impressive last weekend against the Los Angeles Angels, when he struck out 14 batters over seven innings, allowing just two runs on two hits. Tonight, Kirby will face off against a soft-hitting Cleveland Guardians lineup that is averaging just 3.93 runs per game. Taking the Under on 1.5 earned runs allowed is aggressive, but if Kirby throws like he has over his last two starts, then I’m happy to take that bet with solid plus money available.
Total RBIs

Jose Ramirez o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Jose Ramirez's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jose Ramirez is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Extreme flyball batters like Jose Ramirez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like George Kirby.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams playing today.
Total RBIs

Kyle Manzardo o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Kyle Manzardo is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield among all major league parks — generally good for HRs.. Batting from the opposite that George Kirby throws from, Kyle Manzardo will have an advantage in today's matchup.. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Manzardo stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.. Bats such as Kyle Manzardo with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like George Kirby who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Total RBIs

Julio Rodriguez o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 4th-best batter in the game when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Julio Rodriguez is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield among all major league parks — generally good for HRs.. Julio Rodriguez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.. In the past 14 days, Julio Rodriguez's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 41.1%.
Total Bases

Cal Raleigh u1.5 Total Bases (-160)
Projection 0.8 (Under)
EV Model Rating
T-Mobile Park grades out as the #30 venue in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. The weather report forecasts the 3rd-most favorable pitching conditions of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the plate, Cal Raleigh will bat from his worse side against Tanner Bibee in this game.. Typically, batters like Cal Raleigh who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Tanner Bibee.
Total Bases

Jose Ramirez o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Jose Ramirez's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jose Ramirez is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Extreme flyball batters like Jose Ramirez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like George Kirby.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams playing today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Bo Naylor o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-175)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Batting from the opposite that George Kirby throws from, Bo Naylor will have an edge today.. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bo Naylor has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.. Bo Naylor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 79th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.. Extreme groundball batters like Bo Naylor tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like George Kirby.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams playing today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Kyle Manzardo o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+115)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Kyle Manzardo is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield among all major league parks — generally good for HRs.. Batting from the opposite that George Kirby throws from, Kyle Manzardo will have an advantage in today's matchup.. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Manzardo stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.. Bats such as Kyle Manzardo with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like George Kirby who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Jose Ramirez o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-105)
Projection 2.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Jose Ramirez's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jose Ramirez is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Extreme flyball batters like Jose Ramirez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like George Kirby.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams playing today.
Total Bases

Julio Rodriguez o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 4th-best batter in the game when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Julio Rodriguez is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield among all major league parks — generally good for HRs.. Julio Rodriguez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.. In the past 14 days, Julio Rodriguez's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 41.1%.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Rowdy Tellez o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-165)
Projection 1.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield among all major league parks — generally good for HRs.. Rowdy Tellez will hold the platoon advantage over Tanner Bibee in today's game.. Rowdy Tellez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.. Rowdy Tellez has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, improving his 8.1% rate last season to 16.3% this year.. Rowdy Tellez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 98.3-mph over the last week.