New York @ Boston picks

Dobbins allowed two home runs last time out against the New York Yankees, something that’s unsurprising given his brutal .459 expected slugging and the Bronx Bombers' excellent .806 OPS versus ground-ballers, which ranks second in the bigs. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have struck out in 25.4% of their plate appearances in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, New York southpaw Carlos Rodon boasts a .197 xBA and should continue racking up strikeouts tonight. 

Aaron Judge is batting .342 in June with five bombs and is 1-for-2 with a homer against Red Sox starter Hunter Dobbins, who has allowed six home runs in 10 appearances.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 96th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Romy Gonzalez is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. The #3 field in the league for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Romy Gonzalez will have the handedness advantage against Carlos Rodon today.. Romy Gonzalez has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 16th-best hitter in the majors.. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The #3 field in the league for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Rafael Devers will probably have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees has just 1 same-handed RP.. Rafael Devers has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The #3 field in the league for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Dobbins today.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.1% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best batter in the game.. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The #3 field in the league for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Aaron Judge hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball bats like Aaron Judge usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Dobbins.

As it relates to his home run ability, Trent Grisham ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trent Grisham is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The #3 field in the league for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Trent Grisham will have the handedness advantage over Hunter Dobbins in today's matchup.. Trent Grisham pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.9% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Carlos Narvaez is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. The #3 field in the league for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Carlos Narvaez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Rodon in today's game.. Carlos Narvaez has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.. The New York Yankees outfield defense grades out as the weakest among every team playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #3 field in the league for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest.. Rob Refsnyder will have the handedness advantage against Carlos Rodon in today's game.

The #3 field in the league for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. In MLB, Fenway Park's right field fences are the 3rd-shallowest.. The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Marcelo Mayer can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.. The New York Yankees outfield defense grades out as the weakest among every team playing today.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Marcelo Mayer will hold that advantage in today's game.

Roman Anthony is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game.. The #3 field in the league for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Roman Anthony can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.. Roman Anthony has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Batters such as Roman Anthony with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Carlos Rodon who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Fenway Park projects as the #2 ballpark in Major League Baseball for batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest.. Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Carlos Rodon (40.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 FB hitters in Boston's projected lineup.. Playing on the road typically lowers pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Carlos Rodon today.. Carlos Rodon's fastball velocity has fallen 1.9 mph this year (93.7 mph) below where it was last season (95.6 mph).