Toronto @ Philadelphia picks
Citizens Bank Park
TOR vs PHI Picks
MLB Picks
Total Singles


Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst
The main catalyst of the Jays’ offensive burst lately has been Alejandro Kirk, who boasts a .446 batting average and an eight-game hitting streak during this stretch. I expect his bat to continue to roll today, and the value play is specifically betting on him to hit a single, considering 80% of his total hits have been for one bag. Kirk has also recorded two hits in nine career plate appearances against Sanchez.
Total RBIs

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in the majors when estimating his batting average ability.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold the platoon advantage over Cristopher Sanchez today.. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams playing today.
Total RBIs

Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as the game's 3rd-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage against Bowden Francis in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Kyle Schwarber will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Max Kepler o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Max Kepler is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. Batting from the opposite that Bowden Francis throws from, Max Kepler will have the upper hand in today's game.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Max Kepler will hold that advantage today.. Max Kepler has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 13.4% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the last 7 days.
Total Bases

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in the majors when estimating his batting average ability.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humidity on the slate today (85%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold the platoon advantage over Cristopher Sanchez today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-120)
Projection 2.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in the majors when estimating his batting average ability.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humidity on the slate today (85%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold the platoon advantage over Cristopher Sanchez today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Kyle Schwarber o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-110)
Projection 2.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as the game's 3rd-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage against Bowden Francis in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Kyle Schwarber will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Davis Schneider o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-150)
Projection 1.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Davis Schneider in the 87th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Davis Schneider will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today's matchup.. Davis Schneider pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Bats such as Davis Schneider with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams playing today.
Total Bases

George Springer o0.5 Total Bases (-185)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, George Springer ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. George Springer is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, George Springer will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams playing today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Jonatan Clase o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-185)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonatan Clase in the 86th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Jonatan Clase pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 86th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams playing today.. In the last 7 days, Jonatan Clase's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.5% up to 22.2%.. Jonatan Clase has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph to 91.4-mph over the past week.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Tyler Heineman o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-185)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Tyler Heineman will get to bat from his better side against Cristopher Sanchez in today's matchup.. Tyler Heineman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.1% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams playing today.