Toronto @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams playing today. Addison Barger has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, upping his 8.8% rate last year to 15.2% this season. Addison Barger has made big gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 15.2% seasonal rate to 22.5% over the past two weeks. Addison Barger has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.8-mph average to last season's 88.1-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 86th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams playing today. Andres Gimenez has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 94.4-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal EV of 92.4-mph. Andres Gimenez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 13.8% to 19%.

The #7 ballpark in baseball for suppressing base hits to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park. Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 5th-strongest of the day for hurlers. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Bo Bichette in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in the majors when estimating his batting average ability. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold the platoon advantage over Cristopher Sanchez today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams playing today.

The #7 ballpark in baseball for suppressing base hits to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park. Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 5th-strongest of the day for hurlers. Batting from the same side that Bowden Francis throws from, Trea Turner will be in a tough position today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonatan Clase in the 86th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Jonatan Clase pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 86th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams playing today. In the last 7 days, Jonatan Clase's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.5% up to 22.2%. Jonatan Clase has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph to 91.4-mph over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Alejandro Kirk is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Batting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Alejandro Kirk will have the upper hand in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams playing today.

HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Myles Straw will have an advantage today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams playing today.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, George Springer ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). George Springer is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, George Springer will have the upper hand in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and J.T. Realmuto will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.255) suggests that J.T. Realmuto has had bad variance on his side this year with his .234 actual batting average.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Kyle Schwarber ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage against Bowden Francis in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Kyle Schwarber will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 84th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Batting from the opposite that Bowden Francis throws from, Bryson Stott will have the upper hand today. Bryson Stott has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Bryson Stott will hold that advantage today. Bryson Stott's launch angle of late (24.6° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is considerably higher than his 16.6° seasonal mark.

Ernie Clement's batting average talent is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ernie Clement is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Ernie Clement will have an edge today. Ernie Clement pulls many of his flyballs (34.4% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams playing today.

Davis Schneider will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today's matchup. Davis Schneider pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Bats such as Davis Schneider with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams playing today. Philadelphia's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams today creates a favorable matchup for Davis Schneider, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Kemp in the 79th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Otto Kemp will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Otto Kemp has hit one of the hardest balls in MLB in the past week's worth of games — 109.1-mph — which is a good measure of recent form and raw power. Otto Kemp has been lifting the ball well of late, posting a 33.5° launch angle in the past week.

Max Kepler is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Batting from the opposite that Bowden Francis throws from, Max Kepler will have the upper hand in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Max Kepler will hold that advantage today. Max Kepler has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 13.4% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the last 7 days.

When assessing his batting average talent, Alec Bohm is projected as the 17th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alec Bohm has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (62% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Alec Bohm will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Alec Bohm has posted a .281 batting average this year, placing in the 82nd percentile.

As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Tyler Heineman will get to bat from his better side against Cristopher Sanchez in today's matchup. Tyler Heineman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.1% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the 5th-best hitter in the game as it relates to his BABIP ability. Brandon Marsh will have the handedness advantage over Bowden Francis in today's matchup. Brandon Marsh has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Brandon Marsh will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Brandon Marsh has made substantial gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 8.5% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Nick Castellanos is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Nick Castellanos will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Nick Castellanos has made significant strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 7.9% seasonal rate to 18.8% over the past week.