Cleveland @ Seattle picks
T-Mobile Park
CLE vs SEA Picks
MLB Picks
Total Bases


Andrew Caley
Senior Betting Analyst
Want to hear a crazy stat? Ramirez has at least one hit in 32 of his last 33 games and is hitting .391 over that span. Luis Castillo just doesn't have the same stuff this season and ranks in the 18th percentile in xBA. Ramirez also has a .573 xSLG in his career vs. the Mariners starter.
Total RBIs

Julio Rodriguez o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest fences in the league — generally good for home runs.. Julio Rodriguez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Julio Rodriguez's true offensive skill to be a .362, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .036 difference between that mark and his actual .326 wOBA.. Placing in the 91st percentile, the hardest ball Julio Rodriguez has made contact with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 114.7 mph -- an advanced indication of underlying power ability.
Total RBIs

Jose Ramirez o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Jose Ramirez's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jose Ramirez is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today.. Jose Ramirez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 16.5% to 20.5%.
Total RBIs

Kyle Manzardo o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Kyle Manzardo is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest fences in the league — generally good for home runs.. Kyle Manzardo will hold the platoon advantage against Luis Castillo today... and even more favorably, Castillo has a large platoon split.. Kyle Manzardo may have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Rowdy Tellez o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-135)
Projection 1.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest fences in the league — generally good for home runs.. Hitting from the opposite that Gavin Williams throws from, Rowdy Tellez will have an edge today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Rowdy Tellez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Rowdy Tellez has made substantial improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 8.1% rate last year to 16.3% this year.. Rowdy Tellez has seen a big gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.3-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 91-mph figure.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Cal Raleigh o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+110)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Cal Raleigh projects as the 5th-best home run hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (43.2% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Cal Raleigh will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Cal Raleigh has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, upping his 15.5% rate last season to 20.7% this year.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Dominic Canzone o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-160)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest fences in the league — generally good for home runs.. Dominic Canzone will have the handedness advantage over Gavin Williams in today's game.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Dominic Canzone will hold that advantage today.. Dominic Canzone has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .197 figure is a fair amount lower than his .229 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Dominic Canzone has hit reached a maximum exit velocity of 115.9 mph (a reliable stat to assess power), placing in the 96th percentile.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Bo Naylor o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-175)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Given Luis Castillo's large platoon split, Bo Naylor will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.. Bo Naylor may have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.. Bo Naylor pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today.. Bo Naylor's launch angle this season (23.6°) is considerably better than his 19.5° figure last year.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Kyle Manzardo o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+115)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Kyle Manzardo is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest fences in the league — generally good for home runs.. Kyle Manzardo will hold the platoon advantage against Luis Castillo today... and even more favorably, Castillo has a large platoon split.. Kyle Manzardo may have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Cole Young o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-135)
Projection 1.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Cole Young will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Gavin Williams today.. Cole Young pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Cole Young will hold that advantage in today's game.. Over the last 7 days, Cole Young's swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 25% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.
Total Bases

Julio Rodriguez o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest fences in the league — generally good for home runs.. Julio Rodriguez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Julio Rodriguez's true offensive skill to be a .362, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .036 difference between that mark and his actual .326 wOBA.. Placing in the 91st percentile, the hardest ball Julio Rodriguez has made contact with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 114.7 mph -- an advanced indication of underlying power ability.