Toronto @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. The Barrel% of Addison Barger has significantly improved, with an increase from 8.8% last year to 15.2% this season. Addison Barger has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 15.2% seasonal rate to 22.5% over the last 14 days. Addison Barger has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.8-mph average to last season's 88.1-mph average.

Otto Kemp's BABIP talent is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Otto Kemp will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. In the past 7 days, Otto Kemp's maximum exit velocity (a strong proxy for recent form and raw power) has been 109.1-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in the majors. In the past 7 days, Otto Kemp has posted a 33.5° launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. George Springer is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. George Springer will have the handedness advantage against Ranger Suarez in today's matchup. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citizens Bank Park as the 7th-worst park in the majors for RHB BABIP. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. Kevin Gausman will have the handedness advantage over Trea Turner today. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays. In the past two weeks, Trea Turner's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (3.9°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 7.6°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Andres Gimenez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 94.4-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal figure of 92.4-mph. Andres Gimenez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 13.8% to 19%.

Bryson Stott's batting average ability is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Bryson Stott will have an edge today. Bryson Stott has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Bryson Stott will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Bryson Stott's launch angle of late (24.6° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is a considerable increase over his 16.6° seasonal angle.

Davis Schneider will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez today. Davis Schneider pulls many of his flyballs (34.2% — 83rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Hitters such as Davis Schneider with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ranger Suarez who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams today creates a favorable matchup for Davis Schneider, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citizens Bank Park as the 7th-worst park in the majors for RHB BABIP. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. Bo Bichette will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. Bo Bichette's launch angle recently (5° over the last week) is quite a bit worse than his 9.6° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Alejandro Kirk is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Hitting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Alejandro Kirk will have an advantage in today's game. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

Max Kepler has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (82% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Max Kepler will hold the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman in today's game. Max Kepler will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Max Kepler has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 13.4% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonatan Clase in the 86th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Jonatan Clase pulls many of his flyballs (34.7% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Jonatan Clase has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 7.5% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the last 7 days. Jonatan Clase has seen a big increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 91.4-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 87.7-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citizens Bank Park as the 7th-worst park in the majors for RHB BABIP. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today. Compared to his seasonal mark of 7.1°, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-9.4°) in the last two weeks' worth of games.

As it relates to his batting average talent, Alec Bohm is projected as the 17th-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alec Bohm is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Alec Bohm will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In notching a .290 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Alec Bohm is positioned in the 93rd percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Kyle Schwarber ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Kyle Schwarber will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Kyle Schwarber will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Nick Castellanos's batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Nick Castellanos is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Nick Castellanos will hold that advantage in today's game. Nick Castellanos has made notable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 7.9% seasonal rate to 18.8% over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and J.T. Realmuto will hold that advantage in today's game. Despite posting a .291 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes J.T. Realmuto has suffered from bad luck given the .041 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .332.

HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league. Myles Straw will have the handedness advantage against Ranger Suarez in today's matchup. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Myles Straw's 21.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.4%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Ernie Clement has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (91% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Ernie Clement will have an advantage today. Ernie Clement pulls many of his flyballs (34.4% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the 5th-best batter in the game when assessing his BABIP skill. Hitting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Brandon Marsh will have an edge today. Brandon Marsh has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Brandon Marsh will hold that advantage today. Brandon Marsh has made significant strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 8.5% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last two weeks' worth of games.