Los Angeles @ St. Louis props

Freddie Freeman has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and will be challenged by the game's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Freddie Freeman will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.359) provides evidence that Freddie Freeman has had some very good luck this year with his .434 actual wOBA.

Home runs are generally less common at fields with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest in the league. Over the last 7 days, Masyn Winn's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7% down to 0%. Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 90.3-mph seasonal average has dropped to 88.2-mph over the last two weeks. Despite posting a .336 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Masyn Winn has experienced some positive variance given the .030 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .306.

Andy Pages is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today's game. Home runs are generally less common at fields with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest in the league. Hitting from the same side that Michael McGreevy throws from, Andy Pages will be at a disadvantage in today's matchup. Andy Pages will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Andy Pages's launch angle this year (17.3°) is quite a bit lower than his 20.6° angle last season.

Among all major league stadiums, Busch Stadium's RF dimensions are the 2nd-deepest. Shohei Ohtani will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. In the last week's worth of games, Shohei Ohtani's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 17.9%. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Shohei Ohtani has had positive variance on his side this year. His .423 figure has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .384.

The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Victor Scott II will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. With a .329 BABIP this year, Victor Scott II has performed in the 79th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game. The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Lars Nootbaar will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Hitting from the same side that Michael McGreevy throws from, Mookie Betts will be at a disadvantage in today's matchup. Mookie Betts will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game.

Max Muncy is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Hitting from the opposite that Michael McGreevy throws from, Max Muncy will have the upper hand today. Extreme groundball hitters like Max Muncy are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Michael McGreevy. Max Muncy has made significant improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 14.7% seasonal rate to 40% over the last week.

Tommy Edman's batting average ability is projected to be in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Tommy Edman's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 36.9% to 48.9%. In terms of his batting average, Tommy Edman has had bad variance on his side this year. His .243 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .278.

The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Batting from the opposite that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Ryan Vilade will have an advantage in today's matchup. Ryan Vilade hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Ryan Vilade will hold that advantage in today's game. Ranking in the 83rd percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.55 ft/sec since the start of last season, Ryan Vilade is quite toolsy.

The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Batting from the opposite that Michael McGreevy throws from, Michael Conforto will have an edge today. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.6°, Michael Conforto has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 26.5° angle over the last week. Michael Conforto's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 40.6% to 46.9%. Michael Conforto has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .169 rate is a good deal lower than his .226 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today. The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Brendan Donovan will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Brendan Donovan's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 45.8% to 54.5%.

The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Nolan Arenado will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Clayton Kershaw in today's game. Extreme groundball batters like Nolan Arenado tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Clayton Kershaw. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's matchup. This season, Nolan Arenado has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 91.3 mph compared to last year's 89.2 mph mark.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ivan Herrera is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Ivan Herrera will hold the platoon advantage against Clayton Kershaw in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Ivan Herrera will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Willson Contreras will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Clayton Kershaw today. Willson Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Hitting from the opposite that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Pedro Pages will have an edge in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Teoscar Hernandez has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.