Atlanta @ San Francisco picks

Willy Adames is 3-for-10 vs. Atlanta Braves RHP Bryce Elder. Two of those hits have left the yard, and Elder has surrendered multiple homers in three of his nine starts this season. 

Logan Webb has cashed the Over in hits surrendered in three consecutive outings, respectively allowing six, seven, and 10 during that span. While Webb does a nice job of typically pitching out of trouble, opponents are consistently finding green space. It just doesn’t always translate to runs. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 90th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats.. Extreme flyball hitters like Willy Adames generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryce Elder.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Willy Adames will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Willy Adames's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (27.3°) is a significant increase over his 22.2° angle last year.

Matt Chapman projects as the 11th-best home run hitter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats.. Extreme groundball hitters like Matt Chapman usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Bryce Elder.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Matt Chapman will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Matt Olson projects as the 16th-best home run batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Olson is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats.. Matt Olson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Logan Webb in today's game.. Matt Olson has made big gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 12.5% rate last season to 17.9% this season.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats.. Ozzie Albies pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Hitters such as Ozzie Albies with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Logan Webb who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.. Ozzie Albies has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 92.5-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal EV of 88.5-mph.. Ozzie Albies has been unlucky this year, putting up a .293 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .321 — a .028 deviation.

Daniel Johnson is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats.. Daniel Johnson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryce Elder in today's game.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Daniel Johnson will hold that advantage today.