Atlanta @ San Francisco picks

Enter Hayden Birdsong, a young righty who has been quite strong since replacing Jordan Hicks in the starting rotation, and that comes into today with a whiff rate in elite territory and a strikeout rate close behind. His changeup, a pitch that produced a 42% whiff rate, is a real issue for the Braves lineup.They have whiffed a ton against it this season, and with Acuna in the lineup, they will have up to six players with an above-average strikeout rate against that pitch. I expect him to lean on it a ton tonight to help get this prop home. My most significant edge on the slate was here, with a projected strikeout total of a complete K above the actual number. I'd play this current prop to -166.

It is anticipated that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Andy Fletcher) in charge of the strike zone in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats.. Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Spencer Schwellenbach (45% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 4 FB hitters in San Francisco's projected offense.. Playing on the road generally diminishes pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Spencer Schwellenbach in today's matchup.. It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Spencer Schwellenbach has used his non-fastballs 7.3% less often this season (56.8%) than he did last season (64.1%).

When it comes to his home run skill, Willy Adames ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Willy Adames is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats.. Extreme groundball bats like Willy Adames tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Spencer Schwellenbach.. Willy Adames will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When estimating his home run skill, Sean Murphy ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats.. In the last week, Sean Murphy's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.7% up to 33.3%.. Sean Murphy has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 106.6-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 94.8-mph.. Sean Murphy's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 44.7% on the season to 70% over the past 14 days.

Matt Olson projects as the 16th-best home run hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Olson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats.. Hitting from the opposite that Hayden Birdsong throws from, Matt Olson will have an advantage today.. Matt Olson has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 12.5% rate last year to 17.8% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Chapman as MLB's 11th-best home run batter.. Matt Chapman is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats.. Extreme flyball batters like Matt Chapman usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Spencer Schwellenbach.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Matt Chapman will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats.. Marcell Ozuna has recorded a .379 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 96th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Marcell Ozuna has recorded a .384 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 93rd percentile.

Wilmer Flores is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats.. Extreme flyball hitters like Wilmer Flores tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Spencer Schwellenbach.. Wilmer Flores will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.. Wilmer Flores's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, rising from 43.6% on the season to 53.1% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Ozzie Albies is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats.. Ozzie Albies pulls many of his flyballs (39.2% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. In the last 14 days, Ozzie Albies's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88.3-mph over the course of the season to 90.3-mph recently.. Compared to last season, Ozzie Albies has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 14.2% to 17.2% this season.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Hayden Birdsong is projected to throw 82 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least of all pitchers today.. The Atlanta Braves projected batting order profiles as the 2nd-best on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.. The Atlanta Braves have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress going forward. It is anticipated that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Andy Fletcher) in charge of the strike zone in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats.

Daniel Johnson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats.. Batting from the opposite that Spencer Schwellenbach throws from, Daniel Johnson will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Daniel Johnson will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.. Since the start of last season, Daniel Johnson has an average exit velocity of 100.3 mph, which is one of the best in the game at the 99th percentile.