Philadelphia @ Toronto picks

We hit the Phillies on Tuesday, the Jays on Wednesday, and now we flip back to the Phillies for Thursday. They will have the decided pitching advantage with Jesus Luzardo taking on Chris Bassitt, and the Jays' offense still leaves much to be desired. 

The Phillies won’t make a bounce-back easy. Philly enters this matchup ranked fifth in batting average, seventh in OPS, and ninth in wRC+. Countering Bassitt is Jesus Luzardo. The left-hander has looked like a great acquisition for the Phillies this offseason. Luzardo was pitching to a 2.15 ERA and hadn’t allowed more than three earned runs in the first 11 starts of the season. The Brew Crew tagged him for a whopping 12 runs on 12 hits in just 3 1/3 innings pitched. You can certainly give him the benefit of the doubt, but the Blue Jays have been very effective against southpaws this season. Toronto ranks fifth in batting average and seventh in both OPS and wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers this season. The Blue Jays lineup has been much better overall lately and the Phillies lineup is one of the deepest in baseball. I’m betting the lineups don’t let the starters shake off their slumps and send this game Over the total.

There wasn’t much offensive action in Toronto’s 2-1 win over Philadelphia on Wednesday, as each team picked up five hits. None of those were from Trea Turner, who failed to pick up a hit for the first time in seven games. Still, the Philadelphia Phillies’ shortstop, who’s 14th in hitting with a .300 average, has been making great contact of late, with hits in 14 of his last 18 games. Turner has also hit Bassitt well, albeit over a small sample, going 4-for-9, with a .444 clip, the best average of any Phillies player against Bassitt.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Addison Barger in the 78th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Addison Barger is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game.. Among every team in action today, the 5th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.. Addison Barger will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.. Addison Barger has made notable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 8.8% rate last season to 15.2% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. George Springer is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. Considering Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, George Springer will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.. Among every team in action today, the 5th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.. George Springer will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

Max Kepler will have the handedness advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's game... and even more favorably, Bassitt has a large platoon split.. Max Kepler has made notable gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.9% seasonal rate to 22.7% in the last 14 days.. In the last 14 days, Max Kepler's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.5-mph over the course of the season to 100.5-mph lately.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (23.5) may lead us to conclude that Max Kepler has experienced some negative variance this year with his 17.6 actual HR/600.

When it comes to his batting average talent, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold the platoon advantage over Jesus Luzardo today... and even better, Luzardo has a large platoon split.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. Considering Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Kyle Schwarber will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.. In the last 7 days, Kyle Schwarber's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 99.3-mph over the course of the season to 104.5-mph of late.. There has been a significant improvement in Kyle Schwarber's launch angle from last season's 14.9° to 18.8° this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Bryson Stott is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Bryson Stott will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's game... and even more favorably, Bassitt has a large platoon split.. Compared to last year, Bryson Stott has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 16.2% to 21.1% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Despite posting a .288 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes J.T. Realmuto has been unlucky given the .044 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .332.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Over the past week, Nick Castellanos's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.9-mph over the course of the season to 99-mph of late.. By putting up a .279 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Nick Castellanos grades out in the 83rd percentile.. Nick Castellanos grades out in the 97th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (52.1% rate this year).. Checking in at the 76th percentile, Nick Castellanos sports a .274 batting average this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 13th-best batter in the league.. Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's matchup... and even better, Bassitt has a large platoon split.. Bryce Harper's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 13.3% to 21.5%.. Bryce Harper's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, rising from 48.8% on the season to 61.3% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

When it comes to his batting average talent, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold the platoon advantage over Jesus Luzardo today... and even better, Luzardo has a large platoon split.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.