Philadelphia @ Toronto Picks & Props

Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Addison Barger will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Addison Barger has made notable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 8.8% rate last season to 15.2% this season. In the last week, Addison Barger's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 15.2% up to 25%.

This contest is projected to have the 6th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 86th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Andres Gimenez will hold that advantage in today's game. Andres Gimenez has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 92.1-mph average to last year's 88.8-mph EV. Andres Gimenez's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (15.5°) is a significant increase over his 9.2° figure last season.

Max Kepler will have the handedness advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's game... and even more favorably, Bassitt has a large platoon split. Max Kepler has made notable gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.9% seasonal rate to 22.7% in the last 14 days. In the last 14 days, Max Kepler's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.5-mph over the course of the season to 100.5-mph lately. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Max Kepler has had some very poor luck this year. His .304 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .323.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Bryson Stott is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Bryson Stott will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's game... and even more favorably, Bassitt has a large platoon split. Compared to last year, Bryson Stott has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 16.2% to 21.1% this season.

This contest is projected to have the 6th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Chris Bassitt will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trea Turner today... and it's an even larger mismatch considering Bassitt's large platoon split. The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of every team today. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Trea Turner in today's matchup. Trea Turner's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 92.1-mph EV last season has dropped to 90.1-mph.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 13th-best batter in the league. Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game. Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's matchup... and even better, Bassitt has a large platoon split. Bryce Harper's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 13.3% to 21.5%. Bryce Harper's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, rising from 48.8% on the season to 61.3% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. George Springer is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. Considering Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, George Springer will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. George Springer will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

This contest is projected to have the 6th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonatan Clase in the 84th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Jonatan Clase will hold that advantage today. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Jonatan Clase has posted a 26.6° launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.

When estimating his BABIP skill, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Because of Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Brandon Marsh will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game. Over the last 14 days, Brandon Marsh has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 8.6% to 25%. Brandon Marsh has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.9-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 92.5-mph average. Brandon Marsh's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, going from 14.1% on the season to 50% over the last 7 days.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 17th-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. Considering Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Kyle Schwarber will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today. In the last 7 days, Kyle Schwarber's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 99.3-mph over the course of the season to 104.5-mph of late. There has been a significant improvement in Kyle Schwarber's launch angle from last season's 14.9° to 18.8° this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Alejandro Kirk is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. Alejandro Kirk will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jesus Luzardo in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Luzardo has a large platoon split. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Alejandro Kirk will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

Ernie Clement's batting average skill is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ernie Clement has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (93% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. Given Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Ernie Clement will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Ernie Clement will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Alec Bohm is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Alec Bohm hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Over the last 14 days, Alec Bohm's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.8-mph over the course of the season to 97.7-mph recently. Alec Bohm's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, going from 13% on the season to 27.8% in the past week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Despite posting a .288 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes J.T. Realmuto has been unlucky given the .044 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .332.

The switch-hitting Tyler Heineman will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Jesus Luzardo... and even better, Luzardo has a large platoon split. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Tyler Heineman will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Over the past week, Nick Castellanos's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.9-mph over the course of the season to 99-mph of late. By putting up a .279 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Nick Castellanos grades out in the 83rd percentile. Nick Castellanos grades out in the 97th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (52.1% rate this year). Checking in at the 76th percentile, Nick Castellanos sports a .274 batting average this year.

Because of Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Myles Straw will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Myles Straw will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. In the past 7 days, Myles Straw's 63.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.1%.

Because of Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Davis Schneider will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Davis Schneider is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#1-worst of the day). Davis Schneider will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Davis Schneider has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .281 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .299.