Chicago @ Washington Picks & Props

Nationals Park grades out as the #28 ballpark in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Nationals Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. Given Trevor Williams's large platoon split, Seiya Suzuki will be at a huge disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in today's game. Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Seiya Suzuki today.

Nationals Park ranks as the #28 park in the majors for left-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Nationals Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. Extreme groundball batters like Kyle Tucker tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Trevor Williams. Kyle Tucker will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. From last season to this one, Kyle Tucker's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 23.6% to 18.8%.

Nationals Park ranks as the #28 park in the majors for left-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Nationals Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. The Chicago Cubs infield defense grades out as the 5th-best among all the teams in action today. CJ Abrams has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.9-mph dropping to 85.2-mph over the last 14 days. Over the last two weeks, CJ Abrams's 32.4% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 45.5%.

Nationals Park ranks as the #28 park in the majors for left-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Nationals Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. Pete Crow-Armstrong will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. In the past 14 days, Pete Crow-Armstrong's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (19.7°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 23.5°. Pete Crow-Armstrong has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .368 mark is considerably higher than his .327 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to his BABIP talent, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). James Wood is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Cade Horton throws from, James Wood will have the upper hand today. James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball bats like James Wood are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cade Horton.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Ian Happ ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ian Happ is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Ian Happ will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Trevor Williams) in today's game. Ian Happ has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Ian Happ's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 44% to 50.3%.

Nationals Park has the 10th-shallowest left field dimensions in MLB. Compared to last year, Justin Turner has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 19.1% to 28.2% this season. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Justin Turner has had bad variance on his side this year. His .263 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .314. In terms of plate discipline, Justin Turner's talent is quite strong, putting up a 1.56 K/BB rate since the start of last season while ranking in in the 91st percentile.

In the league, Nationals Park's RF fences are the 9th-shallowest. Daylen Lile will hold the platoon advantage over Cade Horton in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Daylen Lile will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Ranking in the 89th percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.83 ft/sec this year, Daylen Lile is very quick.

Matt Shaw has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Tena in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Jose Tena will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Horton today. Jose Tena has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Extreme flyball hitters like Jose Tena tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Cade Horton. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Jose Tena will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Nico Hoerner's batting average ability is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Nico Hoerner has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. In the last 7 days, Nico Hoerner's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 86.9-mph over the course of the season to 89.3-mph lately. Nico Hoerner has posted a .297 Expected Batting Average this year, checking in at the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. By putting up a 1.37 K/BB rate this year, Nico Hoerner has shown strong plate discipline, checking in at the 89th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Michael Busch is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. In the league, Nationals Park's RF fences are the 9th-shallowest. Because of Trevor Williams's large platoon split, Michael Busch will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Michael Busch has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 14.2% seasonal rate to 27.8% over the past two weeks.

In the league, Nationals Park's RF fences are the 9th-shallowest. Robert Hassell III will hold the platoon advantage against Cade Horton in today's matchup. Hitters such as Robert Hassell III with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cade Horton who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Robert Hassell III will hold that advantage today. Robert Hassell III has been hot recently, notching a a 15% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) over the past week.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Nationals Park has the 10th-shallowest left field dimensions in MLB. Dansby Swanson has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.3-mph to 93.8-mph in the past week. Dansby Swanson's launch angle this season (15.5°) is considerably higher than his 10.2° figure last season.

Josh Bell is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. Josh Bell has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Extreme flyball bats like Josh Bell usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Cade Horton. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Josh Bell will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last 14 days, Josh Bell has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 10.9% to 19.2%.

Carson Kelly is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. Nationals Park has the 10th-shallowest left field dimensions in MLB. Carson Kelly has made big improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 6.6% rate last year to 14.6% this season. This season, Carson Kelly has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.2 mph compared to last year's 91.4 mph mark. Grading out in the 82nd percentile, Carson Kelly has put up a .339 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 80th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Nathaniel Lowe is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Cade Horton throws from, Nathaniel Lowe will have an advantage in today's game. Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Extreme flyball hitters like Nathaniel Lowe tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Cade Horton.

The switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Cade Horton. Keibert Ruiz pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Keibert Ruiz will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 10.9°, Keibert Ruiz has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 27.3° figure in the past week.