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The 27-year-old right-hander relies a lot on a hard sinker that usually has great movement. Unfortunately, for May, it’s lost some of its pop this season, and as a result, he enters this start he ranks in the 30th percentile in expected ERA and the 29th percentile in opponent expected batting average. Against the sinker specifically, batters have a .330 xBA and a .573 xSLG. That’s not great, facing a lineup that has given him problems in the past. Current Mets hitters have a .253 xBA vs. the Dodgers starter. Additionally, May doesn’t have the longest leash, averaging 87.9 pitches per start, hitting the 90-pitch plateau just four times in 10 starts. The Mets are also patient at the plate and are tied for the fourth-best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the big leagues. That has me thinking it’s unlikely that May gets through six innings on Monday night. Something he has done just twice in his last seven starts. Give me the Under 17.5 outs for May.









