Pittsburgh @ San Diego Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke'Bryan Hayes in the 76th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Ke'Bryan Hayes has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.2-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 91.1-mph EV. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ke'Bryan Hayes's true offensive ability to be a .299, providing some evidence that he has been unlucky this year given the .041 disparity between that figure and his actual .258 wOBA.

Gavin Sheets will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Gavin Sheets has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 108.2-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal EV of 95-mph. Grading out in the 85th percentile, Gavin Sheets has notched a .361 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. Henry Davis's footspeed has improved this year. His 27.73 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.18 ft/sec now.

The #8 field in baseball for suppressing base hits to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which often leads to less offense. This matchup is forecasted to have the 4th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense projects as the strongest among all the teams in action today. Fernando Tatis Jr. has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 15.8% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last 14 days.

Petco Park projects as the #23 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which often leads to less offense. This matchup is forecasted to have the 4th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Bailey Falter will have the handedness advantage against Jackson Merrill today. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense projects as the strongest among all the teams in action today.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. Batting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Adam Frazier will have an advantage in today's game. Last year, Adam Frazier had an average launch angle of 11.9° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 17.4°.

Petco Park projects as the #23 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which often leads to less offense. This matchup is forecasted to have the 4th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Bailey Falter will hold the platoon advantage against Luis Arraez today. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense projects as the strongest among all the teams in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Dylan Cease in this game. Bryan Reynolds has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 12.1% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Andrew McCutchen hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. When it comes to plate discipline, Andrew McCutchen's ability is quite good, putting up a 1.37 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 89th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 92nd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 5th in the lineup today. Batting from the opposite that Bailey Falter throws from, Xander Bogaerts will have the upper hand in today's game. Xander Bogaerts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Xander Bogaerts will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Spencer Horwitz's batting average ability is projected to be in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Spencer Horwitz is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. Spencer Horwitz will hold the platoon advantage against Dylan Cease in today's game. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Spencer Horwitz grades out in the 77th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .333.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. Jake Cronenworth will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.277) implies that Jake Cronenworth has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .243 actual batting average. As it relates to plate discipline, Jake Cronenworth's talent is quite strong, sporting a 1.73 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 86th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Bats such as Isiah Kiner-Falefa with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Dylan Cease who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Using Statcast data, Isiah Kiner-Falefa grades out in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .280. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has notched a .293 batting average this year, checking in at the 91st percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Oneil Cruz ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. Batting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an edge in today's game. Oneil Cruz has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, improving his 15.7% rate last year to 22.1% this year.

Alexander Canario is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. Alexander Canario's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (27° over the last two weeks) is significantly higher than his 17.4° seasonal angle. Alexander Canario has been hot in recent games, compiling a a 25% Barrel% (a reliable stat to measure power) over the past two weeks. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Alexander Canario has experienced some negative variance this year. His .295 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .328.

Manny Machado's batting average talent is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Bailey Falter throws from, Manny Machado will have the upper hand in today's game. Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Manny Machado will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. Luis Campusano will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bailey Falter today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Luis Campusano will hold that advantage today. Luis Campusano has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last year's 25.04 ft/sec to 25.61 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). Luis Campusano has shown favorable plate discipline since the start of last season, placing in the 84th percentile with a 1.79 K/BB rate.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. Martin Maldonado will hold the platoon advantage against Bailey Falter in today's game. Martin Maldonado will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. This season, Martin Maldonado has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 95.6 mph compared to last year's 93.5 mph mark. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Martin Maldonado has had some very poor luck this year. His .210 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .243.