Cincinnati @ Kansas City picks

The Reds were runaway winners on Tuesday, and with a pitching advantage on Wednesday, why not trust them to get the job done? Hunter Greene has been solid this year, pitching to a 4-2 record and a 2.54 ERA. The Royals are sputtering along, losers of four of their last five games. Take the Reds. 

The Cincinnati Reds struggle to hit left-handed pitching. They have a 69 wRC+ (24th) and a .278 wOBA (22nd) with a 27.3% K rate against southpaws since the start of May. Noah Cameron has a respectable 11.2% swinging strike rate and will look to capitalize against a Reds lineup that can hardly avoid punching out against lefties. He’ll be pitching at home with the wind blowing in, and he could be given a longer leash than normal due to Kansas City’s taxed bullpen. 

Kansas City Royals rookie Noah Cameron has been more than lucky across his first three starts. He currently owns a .102 BABIP, which can’t last much longer. However, the big angle is his leash. He has yet to throw more than 82 pitches and went longer than this total just once across seven Triple-A starts. THE BAT is projecting 85 pitches and 15.3 outs vs. a Cincinnati Reds offense that can make pitchers uncomfortable with its ability to swipe bags. Another edge here is with the weather. This game projects dry to start, per Kevin Roth, but is expected to get wet later, which could shorten his start even further. 

When assessing his batting average ability, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 4th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense projects as the 5th-weakest among all the teams today.. Bobby Witt Jr. will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

When assessing his BABIP skill, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Extreme flyball batters like Elly De La Cruz are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Noah Cameron.. Elly De La Cruz's maximum exit velocity (a reliable metric to study power) has been 114.9 mph this year, placing in the 95th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 89th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Salvador Perez is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense projects as the 5th-weakest among all the teams today.. Salvador Perez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Vinnie Pasquantino is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Vinnie Pasquantino will have the handedness advantage over Hunter Greene today.. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense projects as the 5th-weakest among all the teams today.. Vinnie Pasquantino will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 95th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Noah Cameron throws from, Matt McLain will have an edge today.. Despite posting a .272 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Matt McLain has suffered from bad luck given the .058 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330.. This year, Matt McLain's flyball exit velocity (a reliable metric to assess power) grades out in the 87th percentile at 96.2 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dairon Blanco in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Extreme groundball bats like Dairon Blanco generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Greene.. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense projects as the 5th-weakest among all the teams today.. Dairon Blanco will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Vinnie Pasquantino is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Vinnie Pasquantino will have the handedness advantage over Hunter Greene today.. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense projects as the 5th-weakest among all the teams today.. Vinnie Pasquantino will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Michael Massey will hold the platoon advantage against Hunter Greene today.. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense projects as the 5th-weakest among all the teams today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Michael Massey will hold that advantage today.. Michael Massey's launch angle this season (22.9°) is significantly better than his 16.7° mark last season.

Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Greene throws from, John Rave will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense projects as the 5th-weakest among all the teams today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and John Rave will hold that advantage today.

When assessing his BABIP skill, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Extreme flyball batters like Elly De La Cruz are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Noah Cameron.. Elly De La Cruz's maximum exit velocity (a reliable metric to study power) has been 114.9 mph this year, placing in the 95th percentile.