Miami @ San Diego Picks & Props

Petco Park projects as the #26 venue in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Despite posting a .375 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jackson Merrill has been very fortunate given the .031 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .344.

The #5 stadium in MLB for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Sandy Alcantara will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Fernando Tatis Jr. today. There has been a significant decline in Fernando Tatis Jr.'s launch angle from last season's 9.7° to 6.4° this year.

Petco Park projects as the #26 venue in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 87.9-mph EV last season has dropped off to 84.6-mph. This year, Luis Arraez's 0% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 0th percentile among his peers.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Martin Maldonado will hold that advantage in today's game. Martin Maldonado has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.6-mph average to last year's 93.5-mph figure. Martin Maldonado has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .210 mark is a fair amount lower than his .244 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Martin Maldonado ranks in the 84th percentile with a 17.9° launch angle, which is one of the highest angles in baseball.

The #5 stadium in MLB for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Hitting from the same side that Sandy Alcantara throws from, Manny Machado has a tough challenge in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Manny Machado's true offensive skill to be a .347, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .036 difference between that figure and his actual .383 wOBA.

The #5 stadium in MLB for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Otto Lopez has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 6th-deepest RF fences today. Otto Lopez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Otto Lopez's average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 88-mph mark last year has fallen off to 85.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. Extreme flyball batters like Jesus Sanchez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Kyle Hart. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.271) implies that Jesus Sanchez has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .248 actual batting average. Jesus Sanchez has notched a .343 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 85th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Agustin Ramirez is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. Agustin Ramirez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Hart in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Hart has a huge platoon split. Agustin Ramirez has been hot lately, hitting his way to a .343 wOBA in the past 7 days.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. Nick Fortes will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Hart today... and even more favorably, Hart has a huge platoon split. Nick Fortes's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 88.8-mph now compared to just 84.1-mph then.

Eric Wagaman is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Eric Wagaman will hold the platoon advantage over Kyle Hart in today's matchup... and even better, Hart has a huge platoon split. Eric Wagaman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Ranked in the 77th percentile, Eric Wagaman has one of the highest average exit velocities in Major League Baseball this year (91.4-mph).

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. Batting from the opposite that Sandy Alcantara throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have an advantage in today's matchup. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Jake Cronenworth will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Javier Sanoja in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Javier Sanoja will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Hart in today's game... and even better, Hart has a huge platoon split. Javier Sanoja hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball batters like Javier Sanoja tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kyle Hart. Despite posting a .268 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Javier Sanoja has suffered from bad luck given the .033 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .301.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Elias Diaz will hold that advantage today. Elias Diaz's launch angle this year (16.4°) is quite a bit better than his 7.3° figure last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby as the 11th-best hitter in the majors as it relates to his BABIP ability. Connor Norby is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. Connor Norby will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Hart in today's matchup... and moreover, Hart has a huge platoon split. Since the start of last season, Connor Norby's 13.7% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 91st percentile among his peers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Xander Bogaerts hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Xander Bogaerts will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Xander Bogaerts's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 42% to 50.8%. Xander Bogaerts has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .287 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .326 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 77th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Kyle Stowers is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. Kyle Stowers has made big gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 11% rate last year to 23.6% this season. This season, Kyle Stowers has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.7 mph compared to last year's 94.4 mph mark.

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. Gavin Sheets will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sandy Alcantara in today's game. Gavin Sheets is likely to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP. Gavin Sheets will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Gavin Sheets has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92-mph average to last season's 87.8-mph mark.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. Tyler Wade will hold the platoon advantage against Sandy Alcantara today. Tyler Wade has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Tyler Wade will hold that advantage today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.288) implies that Tyler Wade has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .265 actual wOBA.

Jose Iglesias has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.