Pittsburgh @ Arizona picks

It’s no secret that Paul Skenes is one of the best pitchers in the game, and he’s proving that in 2025. The right-hander boasts a 2.35 ERA, striking out 70 in 68 2/3 innings of work while walking just 18 batters. Skenes may not always get a ton of run support, but he keeps his team in ballgames. The flamethrower has cashed the Under in earned runs allowed in three consecutive outings, giving up just one in each of those starts against the Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, and New York Mets.

This is a big plus-money price for an Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher struggling to get deep thanks to some terrible walk numbers. Zac Gallen has pitched 61+ innings this year but has also issued 29 free passes. This has led to multiple walks in nine straight starts. He's also failed to record 18 outs in three straight. That includes a 100-pitch outing vs. St. Louis in his last start where he walked four. THE BAT is projecting 17.3 outs, making this about a coin flip but at good money. There are some bats in this Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that can do some damage and Oneil Cruz hits righties much harder with a .967 OPS this year. I’d play this to +115 today with my MLB picks. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Chase Field projects as the #2 park in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Chase Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game 11° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Zac Gallen.

When estimating his home run talent, Alexander Canario ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Alexander Canario has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (58% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Chase Field projects as the #2 field in MLB for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Chase Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game 11° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Alexander Canario has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year's 27.18 ft/sec to 27.93 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the game's 7th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Chase Field projects as the #2 park in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Chase Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game 11° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Oneil Cruz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zac Gallen today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 12th-best batter in the league.. Ketel Marte is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Chase Field projects as the #2 park in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. The Chase Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game 11° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.

Jared Triolo's BABIP ability is projected in the 76th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Chase Field projects as the #2 field in MLB for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. The Chase Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game 11° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Jared Triolo has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90.4-mph average to last year's 88.3-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Chase Field projects as the #2 park in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Chase Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game 11° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Zac Gallen.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Andrew McCutchen is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Chase Field projects as the #2 field in MLB for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. The Chase Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game 11° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the game's 7th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Chase Field projects as the #2 park in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Chase Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game 11° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Oneil Cruz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zac Gallen today.

Chase Field projects as the #2 field in MLB for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Chase Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game 11° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Compared to last season, Joey Bart has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 43.1% to 54% this season.. Joey Bart has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 3.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit lower than his 18.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. The standard deviation of Joey Bart's launch angle since the start of last season (25.3°) is in the 94th percentile. A low deviation like this tends to lead to a higher rate of base hits.

When estimating his home run talent, Alexander Canario ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Alexander Canario has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (58% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Chase Field projects as the #2 field in MLB for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Chase Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game 11° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Alexander Canario has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year's 27.18 ft/sec to 27.93 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).