Boston @ Milwaukee Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles American Family Field as the 7th-worst ballpark in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average. Cooper Criswell will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jackson Chourio today... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Criswell's large platoon split. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest among every team today. Jackson Chourio's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, decreasing from 16% to 10.1%. Jackson Chourio's footspeed has fallen off this season. His 29.71 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.01 ft/sec now.

In Major League Baseball, American Family Field's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Marcelo Mayer will hold the platoon advantage over Aaron Civale in today's game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 15th-best batter in Major League Baseball. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today. In Major League Baseball, American Family Field's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.

Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Caleb Durbin hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences today. Caleb Durbin will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Caleb Durbin has been unlucky this year, notching a .264 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .296 — a .032 gap.

Trevor Story's BABIP ability is projected in the 75th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Trevor Story hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Trevor Story has been unlucky this year, notching a .263 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .302 — a .039 discrepancy.

In Major League Baseball, American Family Field's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Isaac Collins will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Christian Yelich's BABIP ability is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Christian Yelich is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. In Major League Baseball, American Family Field's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 5th in the lineup today. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Hitting from the opposite that Aaron Civale throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 83rd percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Sal Frelick will have the handedness advantage over Cooper Criswell in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Criswell has a large platoon split. Sal Frelick hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Kristian Campbell is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. As it relates to his batting average, Kristian Campbell has had bad variance on his side this year. His .224 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .242.

Ceddanne Rafaela's BABIP ability is projected in the 75th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences today. Ceddanne Rafaela has made significant strides with his Barrel%, improving his 7.6% rate last year to 14% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran as the 15th-best batter in the majors when it comes to his BABIP skill. Jarren Duran is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup. In Major League Baseball, American Family Field's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.

Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). William Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Jake Bauers will have the handedness advantage against Cooper Criswell in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Criswell has a large platoon split. Jake Bauers will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Jake Bauers has made big gains with his Barrel%, improving his 10.5% rate last year to 20% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Brice Turang is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Given Cooper Criswell's large platoon split, Brice Turang will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.

Carlos Narvaez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (92% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Carlos Narvaez has been hot in recent games, tallying a .364 wOBA in the last week. Grading out in the 84th percentile, Carlos Narvaez has posted a .363 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

Rhys Hoskins is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. In Major League Baseball, American Family Field's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Rhys Hoskins will hold that advantage in today's matchup.