Boston @ Milwaukee picks
American Family Field
BOS vs MIL Picks
MLB Picks
Hits, Runs, and RBIs


Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst
I don't have much faith in Brewers starter Aaron Civale or a Milwaukee bullpen that is 24th in the majors in ERA (4.71). Devers is fourth in the majors in hard-hit rate, while ranking 13th in adjusted velocity and barrel rate. The three-time All-Star is slashing .375/.486/.670 this month and will have the platoon advantage against Civale. The wind is also blowing towards the rightfield fence at 10 mph which will benefit a left-handed hitter like Devers who tends to pull the ball.
Strikeouts Thrown

Richard Fitts u2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+110)
Projection 2.4 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Richard Fitts to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 53 pitches.. According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.3% underlying K%.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense.. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.. Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Richard Fitts (35.4% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 4 FB hitters in Milwaukee's projected batting order.
Total RBIs

Kristian Campbell o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Kristian Campbell is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. Among all major league parks, American Family Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense.. This contest is forecasted to have the 4th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Total RBIs

Rafael Devers o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 15th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. In Major League Baseball, American Family Field's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest.. Among all major league parks, American Family Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.
Total RBIs

William Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. William Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. Among all major league parks, American Family Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense.. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.
Total Bases

Rafael Devers o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 15th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. In Major League Baseball, American Family Field's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest.. Among all major league parks, American Family Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. This contest is forecasted to have the 4th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Jake Bauers o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-125)
Projection 1.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Bauers in the 95th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Among all major league parks, American Family Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense.. This contest is forecasted to have the 4th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Jake Bauers will have the handedness advantage against Cooper Criswell in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Criswell has a large platoon split.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Rafael Devers o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-110)
Projection 2.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 15th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. In Major League Baseball, American Family Field's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest.. Among all major league parks, American Family Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. This contest is forecasted to have the 4th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
MM
Marcelo Mayer o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-165)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
In Major League Baseball, American Family Field's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest.. Among all major league parks, American Family Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.. Marcelo Mayer will hold the platoon advantage over Aaron Civale in today's game.