Miami @ San Diego Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Petco Park as the 5th-worst park in the majors for left-handed batting average. Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. The Miami Marlins infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of every team on the slate today. Jackson Merrill has been lucky this year, compiling a .375 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .344 — a .031 discrepancy.

The #5 park in Major League Baseball for suppressing batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. Batting from the same side that Max Meyer throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. encounters a tough challenge today. The Miami Marlins infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of every team on the slate today. Fernando Tatis Jr.'s launch angle this year (6.4°) is considerably lower than his 9.7° angle last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Petco Park as the 5th-worst park in the majors for left-handed batting average. Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. The Miami Marlins infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of every team on the slate today. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 87.9-mph EV last year has fallen off to 84.6-mph. Luis Arraez's 0% Barrel% (an advanced metric to assess power) grades out in the 0th percentile this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 77%. Xander Bogaerts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Xander Bogaerts will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Xander Bogaerts's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 42% to 50.8%.

Javier Sanoja's batting average skill is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 77%. Javier Sanoja hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Despite posting a .268 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Javier Sanoja has suffered from bad luck given the .033 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .301.

Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 77%. Batting from the opposite that Stephen Kolek throws from, Matt Mervis will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Matt Mervis's speed has increased this season. His 24.56 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.21 ft/sec now.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Kyle Stowers ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Kyle Stowers is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in Petco Park. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 77%. Batting from the opposite that Stephen Kolek throws from, Kyle Stowers will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

Eric Wagaman is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 77%. Eric Wagaman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Eric Wagaman's 91.4-mph average exit velocity is one of the best in Major League Baseball this year: 77th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jesus Sanchez ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jesus Sanchez is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in Petco Park. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 77%. Hitting from the opposite that Stephen Kolek throws from, Jesus Sanchez will have an edge in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby as the 11th-best batter in the game when it comes to his BABIP skill. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in Petco Park. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 77%. Since the start of last season, Connor Norby's 13.7% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 91st percentile among his peers. Since the start of last season, Connor Norby's flyball exit velocity (an advanced standard to evaluate power) ranks in the 90th percentile at 95.4 mph.

Manny Machado's batting average talent is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 77%. Manny Machado hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Manny Machado will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in Petco Park. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 77%. Batting from the opposite that Max Meyer throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have the upper hand today. Jake Cronenworth may have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.

The 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in Petco Park. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 77%. Ranking in the 89th percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.81 ft/sec this year, Ronny Simon is notably fast.

Agustin Ramirez is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in Petco Park. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 77%. In the past week, Agustin Ramirez has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .343.

Brandon Lockridge's BABIP skill is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 77%. Brandon Lockridge hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Brandon Lockridge will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Ranking in the 98th percentile for Sprint Speed at 29.78 ft/sec this year, Brandon Lockridge is quite fast.

The 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in Petco Park. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 77%. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Elias Diaz will hold that advantage today. Elias Diaz's launch angle this season (16.4°) is significantly better than his 7.3° angle last season.

Liam Hicks has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (96% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in Petco Park. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 77%. Hitting from the opposite that Stephen Kolek throws from, Liam Hicks will have the upper hand in today's game.

Gavin Sheets is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 77%. Gavin Sheets will hold the platoon advantage against Max Meyer in today's game. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Gavin Sheets stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Gavin Sheets will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in Petco Park. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 77%. Tyler Wade will hold the platoon advantage over Max Meyer in today's matchup. Tyler Wade may have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP. Tyler Wade will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.