It was a tough holiday Monday on the reverse sweep, but one bet that I continue to shout from the rooftops is betting on the pitcher to record the win vs. the Rockies. I’ll be hitting it again today as well as getting some shekels down on a pair of other pitcher props.
These are my three favorite MLB pitcher props for Tuesday, May 27.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 27
Horton to record the win (-105)
Lynch o1.5 strikeouts (-115)
Meyer o2.5 earned runs (-110)
Today's SP best bets
Rockies vs. Cubs
The angle: Fade the Rockies at all costs, but this is by far the best market to do it with
The move: Cade Horton to record the win (-105 at DraftKings)
Cade Horton has an out prop of 17.5 today, and he is getting deep vs. this Colorado Rockies lineup that is the worst offense in baseball on the road that has to deal with double-digit winds blowing in at Wrigley.
That might affect the Chicago Cubs at the dish, but the home side is one of the best BB% teams in baseball and can score runs with just one hit and not have to leave the yard.
The Cubs are -350 on the ML and -270 on the F5 ML, yet Horton, who is expected to go 5+ frames, is -105 today to record the win. German Marquez somehow has worse numbers on the road than at Coors this year, with an 11.32 ERA away from Colorado. I will continue to hit this prop every day at -135 or better.
Reds vs. Royals
The angle: Short total on a pitcher who may go 50 pitches vs. a high K% team
The move: Daniel Lynch Over 1.5 strikeouts (-115 at DraftKings)
Daniel Lynch is a former starter turned reliever who is getting back into the rotation. He does not have a full leash, but THE BAT is projecting over 50 pitches and 2.05 Ks. He last made a start on the 21st and went 40 pitches while punching out two batters.
He did throw 21 pitches on Saturday, but 45-55 pitches are still in the cards here vs. a high K% Cincinnati Reds squad. I’m not laddering this, but two Ks once through the order at 15 cents for any pitcher is a good buy point.
The home start helps, and Lynch might see some guys a second time through the order as KC’s other lefty in Evan Sisk, is likely unavailable, leaving just one more LHP in the pen.
Marlins vs. Padres
The angle: Meyer is coming off a season-high in pitches and was giving up runs in bunches prior to his last start
The move: Max Meyer Over 2.5 earned runs (-110 at DraftKings)
There are a few angles to hit here, as I debated putting up the Under 17.5 outs at +130. I do have that play in my account, but I also like this Over earned runs prop, too.
Max Meyer is coming off a season-high 99 pitches in his last start, where he pitched well, allowing one run over 18 outs. However, he had allowed 19 runs over his previous four starts before that and made it past 15 outs just one time over that four-game stretch. THE BAT is projecting 2.75 earned runs today.
It’s a tough road matchup vs. a good offense, and the Miami Marlins starter is significantly worse on the road than at home.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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