Colorado @ Chicago picks

The Chicago Cubs are -340 moneyline favorites vs. an 11.88 ERA pitcher in Carson Palmquist, who has made two starts and has given up 12 runs. He is getting a decent leash and projects for around 90 pitches today. This is another spot where bettors should also be looking at the Colorado Rockies' opposing pitcher to record the win as it's a market that should be hit every day with your MLB picks. The Rockies are one of the worst offenses on the road and Palmquist could be down by five runs or more by the time he is yanked. He's allowed 16 hits across 8+ innings of work and went 86 pitches last start giving up 10 hits and seven runs on the road vs. a comparable Philly lineup. The hitting conditions at Wrigley are being priced into this number but considering his 2:5 K:BB rate over his first two MLB starts, the wind isn't going to aid the walks this guy gives up. 

The #10 ballpark in baseball for boosting strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-coldest temperature on the slate at 57°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for hurlers.. Considering that groundball pitchers have a significant edge over groundball batters, Carson Palmquist and his 41.7% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position in this outing matching up with 2 opposing GB batters.

Carson Kelly is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game.. The 5th-shallowest left field fences in the league are found in Wrigley Field.. Given Carson Palmquist's large platoon split, Carson Kelly will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Carson Kelly will hold that advantage in today's game.. Carson Kelly has made big improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 6.6% rate last year to 15% this season.

Michael Toglia is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Michael Toglia's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 43.1% to 48.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 80th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Brenton Doyle is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. The 5th-shallowest left field fences in the league are found in Wrigley Field.. Brenton Doyle's 12.7% Barrel% (a reliable standard to evaluate power) is in the 79th percentile this year.. Brenton Doyle is remarkably athletic, ranking in the 94th percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.16 ft/sec this year.

When assessing his home run ability, Ryan McMahon ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan McMahon is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Jameson Taillon throws from, Ryan McMahon will have an advantage today.. Ryan McMahon has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Adael Amador will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Jameson Taillon in today's game.

The 5th-shallowest left field fences in the league are found in Wrigley Field.

Nick Martini will hold the platoon advantage over Jameson Taillon in today's matchup.