It’s a holiday Monday with a full slate and some of my favorite baseball — early afternoon games. There are a lot of angles and edges to look at over the four-to-six pitcher markets available.
These are my three favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Monday, May 26.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 26
Palmquist o2.5 earned runs (-113)
Cardinals F5 ML (-125)
deGrom u4.5 hits allowed (-106)
Today's SP best bets
Rockies vs. Cubs
The angle: Even the Wrigley winds are saving this Colorado starter today
The move: Carson Palmquist Over 2.5 earned runs (-113 at Caesars)
The Chicago Cubs are -340 moneyline favorites vs. an 11.88 ERA pitcher in Carson Palmquist, who has made two starts and has given up 12 runs. He is getting a decent leash and projects for around 90 pitches today.
This is another spot where bettors should also be looking at the Colorado Rockies' opposing pitcher to record the win as it's a market that should be hit every day with your MLB picks.
The Rockies are one of the worst offenses on the road and Palmquist could be down by five runs or more by the time he is yanked. He's allowed 16 hits across 8+ innings of work and went 86 pitches last start giving up 10 hits and seven runs on the road vs. a comparable Philly lineup.
The hitting conditions at Wrigley are being priced into this number but considering his 2:5 K:BB rate over his first two MLB starts, the wind isn't going to aid the walks this guy gives up.
Cardinals vs. Orioles
The angle: Charlie Morton is running out of chances to be a starter
The move: Cardinals F5 ML (-125 at Caesars)
Let’s fade Charlie Morton, who returns to the rotation after the Baltimore Orioles kicked the tires on Kyle Gibson with terrible results. There is a reason Morton got moved to the pen and that’s because guys are crushing him. He has a 45% hard-hit rate (the league average is 35%) and his Baseball Savant page is about as blue as possible.
Erick Fedde, on the other hand, has been one of the most consistent pitchers this year. He is coming off a bad start vs. the Tigers but has gone 100 pitches or 18 outs in 70% of his starts this year. He can navigate this Orioles offense on the road as Baltimore is still one of the most frustrating teams in the league.
The St. Louis Cardinals are a F5 -125 ML favorite, which is a great spot. Don't be afraid to look at Fedde's prices to record the win at +160 or better.
Blue Jays vs. Rangers
The angle: deGrom has made some mechanical tweaks and that's bad news for hitters
The move: Jacob deGrom Under 4.5 hits allowed (-106 at Caesars)
It’s great to see Jacob deGrom back at the top of his game. There have been reports that he's lowered his arm slot, which he's said is helping with his recovery from start to start. Over his last three games, he has 26 punchouts over 20 innings. Looking at an even bigger sample, he has allowed just eight runs over his last seven games, with 29 hits over 43 innings.
There is also a chance at fewer pitches today as he’s coming off his first 100-pitch game of the season. The Toronto Blue Jays are anything but a potent offense and deGrom can hit this Under by dominating for seven innings or going 18 outs on 90 pitches.
deGrom is back and that’s bad news for the Jays. He’s also +160 to record the win but this could be a classic pitcher's duel with Kevin Gausman coming off a great start.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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