Toronto @ Tampa Bay picks
George M. Steinbrenner Field
TOR vs TB Picks
MLB Picks
Earned Runs Allowed


Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst
Shane Baz has gone Over 2.5 runs in four straight outings, including his last start against the Toronto Blue Jays on May 13, where he gave up two homers and three runs before being yanked after 4 2/3 innings. The Rays righty has been struggling mightily recently. He’s been hit hard over his last four outings with an ERA of 9.61 in that stretch, giving up 5.25 runs per game. Furthermore, his underlying metrics are poor this season. He has a 3.99 xERA with a barrel rate and hard-hit percentage below the 20th percentile.
Strikeouts Thrown

Shane Baz u4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+110)
Projection 4.4 (Under)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.7% underlying K%.. It is likely that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Carlos Torres) calling pitches in today's game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 89°.
Total RBIs

Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his home run skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. The #9 field in the league for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is George M. Steinbrenner Field.. George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences among all parks.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 89°.
Total RBIs

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in MLB when assessing his batting average talent.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 9th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs.. George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences among all parks.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 89°.
Total RBIs

Junior Caminero o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Junior Caminero's batting average skill is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 9th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs.. George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences among all parks.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 89°.
Total RBIs

Daulton Varsho o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Daulton Varsho is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #9 field in the league for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is George M. Steinbrenner Field.. George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences among all parks.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 89°.. Daulton Varsho will hold the platoon advantage over Shane Baz in today's game.
Total RBIs

Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game.. The #9 field in the league for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is George M. Steinbrenner Field.. George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences among all parks.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 89°.
Total RBIs

George Springer o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. George Springer is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 9th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs.. George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences among all parks.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 89°.
Total Bases

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 2.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in MLB when assessing his batting average talent.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 9th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs.. George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences among all parks.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 89°.
Total Bases

Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Junior Caminero's batting average skill is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 9th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs.. George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences among all parks.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 89°.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Brandon Lowe o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-105)
Projection 2.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his home run skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. The #9 field in the league for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is George M. Steinbrenner Field.. George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences among all parks.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 89°.