Arizona @ St. Louis picks

The Diamondbacks are playing good baseball right now, despite losing two straight to the Dodgers. Everyone loses to the Dodgers. However, I'll happily back them to get back on track vs. an overrated Miles Mikolas. 

Miles Mikolas has rebounded after a shaky start to the beginning of the season, following a bad end to last year. The 36-year-old righty has allowed one earned run or less in four of his previous five starts. It’s given me confidence to back the Cardinals early today with my best bet, especially at a plus-money price. I’m backing Mikolas in continuing his recent fine form. There’s a clear path for him. Although most of his underlying metrics were heavily influenced by a rough start, he’s still capable of elite players' ground ball-inducing starts. That should work well against the Arizona Diamondbacks, which ranks seventh among the majors in ground ball rates. I liked St. Louis to win on Friday night, but I saw a bigger edge on the first five numbers. My projections made the fair price -108, and I would play this all the way to even money. 

Right-hander Zac Gallen takes the mound for Arizona and has regressed significantly this season. Gallen is 3-5 through 10 starts with a 5.14 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. His underlying metrics suggest continued struggles, as he ranks in the 39th percentile or lower in expected ERA (xERA), chase rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. My MLB picks believe these woes are likely to continue against the current Cardinals roster, which boasts a .325 batting average, .600 slugging percentage, and .420 wOBA through 47 combined plate appearances against Gallen. Furthermore, St. Louis ranks sixth in the league in strikeout rate this season.

The Diamondbacks are third in the majors in OPS (.783) and score a run in the first inning at the fourth-highest rate (36%). They face Miles Mikolas who has 4.45 xERA through nine starts and has an ugly .350 OBA in the opening frame. The D-Backs respond with Zac Gallen who has pitched to a 5.14 ERA . He has a 8.10 ERA with an OBA of .295 in the first inning and won't find it easy to navigate a Cards lineup that leads the majors with a BA of .287 at home. 

Miles Mikolas is not getting a lot of love in this prop but this is still a very efficient pitcher that when he is on, can get deep even on 85 pitches. He has gone Over this number in five of his last six starts and just threw 18 scoreless outs on 76 pitches. Even THE BAT likes this Over at plus money with a projection of 15.8 outs on just 84 pitches. Pencil him in for 20-23 batters faced as his 1.67 ERA over his last six starts might be lost here. He has also had to make six of his nine starts on the road this year, so a home start vs. a tough lineup might be a wash. The weather is in his favor with no rain and little winds, too. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Among all major league stadiums, Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .223 figure is a good deal lower than his .276 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Ranking in the 76th percentile, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. sports a .308 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Among all major league stadiums, Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Zac Gallen throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have an edge in today's game.. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.