Arizona @ St. Louis picks
Busch Stadium
AZ vs STL Picks
MLB Picks

Miles Mikolas has rebounded after a shaky start to the beginning of the season, following a bad end to last year. The 36-year-old righty has allowed one earned run or less in four of his previous five starts. It’s given me confidence to back the Cardinals early today with my best bet, especially at a plus-money price. I’m backing Mikolas in continuing his recent fine form. There’s a clear path for him. Although most of his underlying metrics were heavily influenced by a rough start, he’s still capable of elite players' ground ball-inducing starts. That should work well against the Arizona Diamondbacks, which ranks seventh among the majors in ground ball rates. I liked St. Louis to win on Friday night, but I saw a bigger edge on the first five numbers. My projections made the fair price -108, and I would play this all the way to even money.


Right-hander Zac Gallen takes the mound for Arizona and has regressed significantly this season. Gallen is 3-5 through 10 starts with a 5.14 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. His underlying metrics suggest continued struggles, as he ranks in the 39th percentile or lower in expected ERA (xERA), chase rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. My MLB picks believe these woes are likely to continue against the current Cardinals roster, which boasts a .325 batting average, .600 slugging percentage, and .420 wOBA through 47 combined plate appearances against Gallen. Furthermore, St. Louis ranks sixth in the league in strikeout rate this season.

The Diamondbacks are third in the majors in OPS (.783) and score a run in the first inning at the fourth-highest rate (36%). They face Miles Mikolas who has 4.45 xERA through nine starts and has an ugly .350 OBA in the opening frame. The D-Backs respond with Zac Gallen who has pitched to a 5.14 ERA . He has a 8.10 ERA with an OBA of .295 in the first inning and won't find it easy to navigate a Cards lineup that leads the majors with a BA of .287 at home.


Miles Mikolas is not getting a lot of love in this prop but this is still a very efficient pitcher that when he is on, can get deep even on 85 pitches. He has gone Over this number in five of his last six starts and just threw 18 scoreless outs on 76 pitches. Even THE BAT likes this Over at plus money with a projection of 15.8 outs on just 84 pitches. Pencil him in for 20-23 batters faced as his 1.67 ERA over his last six starts might be lost here. He has also had to make six of his nine starts on the road this year, so a home start vs. a tough lineup might be a wash. The weather is in his favor with no rain and little winds, too.

