The gift that keeps on giving is fading the Rockies, and I’ll be doing that until the wheels fall off.
There are some great spots today with questionable leashes, so let’s have a fantastic Friday.
These are my three favorite pitcher props and MLB picks for Friday, May 23.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 23
Schmidt to record the win (-115)
Mikolas o15.5 outs (+125)
Hancock u17.5 outs (-105)
Today's SP best bets
Yankees vs. Rockies
The angle: Keep fading the Rockies
The move: Clarke Schmidt to record the win (-115 at bet365)
I have not missed one of these all week, and this price on Friday is one of the best of the week.
The Rockies are the worst baseball team in the modern era after 50 games, as they have just eight wins. Models always show value on them as they can’t possibly be this bad — yet they are.
The Rockies don’t even have a starter listed today and the Yankees are -300 on the ML and -280 on the F5 ML. I still don’t think this prop is priced in proportion to the F5 ML. It’s the same price as the F5 -1.5.
This Rockies bullpen is not winning late games and Clarke Schmidt is getting 15 outs and has only struggled recently with command. He’s allowed just 25 hits over 32+ innings this year and the Rockies are one of the worst BB% teams in baseball. I’m buying this to -130 every day.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals
The angle: Mikolas is still efficient and can get this Over even on 80 pitches
The move: Miles Mikolas Over 15.5 outs recorded (+125 at bet365)
Miles Mikolas is not getting a lot of love in this prop but this is still a very efficient pitcher that when he is on, can get deep even on 85 pitches.
He has gone Over this number in five of his last six starts and just threw 18 scoreless outs on 76 pitches. Even THE BAT likes this Over at plus money with a projection of 15.8 outs on just 84 pitches. Pencil him in for 20-23 batters faced as his 1.67 ERA over his last six starts might be lost here.
He has also had to make six of his nine starts on the road this year, so a home start vs. a tough lineup might be a wash. The weather is in his favor with no rain and little winds, too.
Mariners vs. Astros
The angle: Hancock is a bad pitcher with a short leash
The move: Emmerson Hancock Under 17.5 outs recorded (-105 at bet365)
I'm back on fading a Seattle pitcher with hopefully better results than George Kirby yesterday.
Emerson Hancock does not get to throw many pitches, which is the biggest angle here. He hasn’t thrown more than 88 pitches in three straight starts and his 1.68 WHIP is thanks to bad command with 44 hits over 34+ innings, which drives up his pitch count.
He is a short-leashed, inefficient pitcher. His K total is at 3.5 and I like the Over at plus money, but that’s because of the price and total — not that he's elite. Five innings with four Ks and multiple walks is certainly in the cards today vs. the Astros on the road.
This is a bad pitcher on the road with a big out total. There are a lot more paths to this Under than the Over.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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