Chicago @ Cincinnati picks

I think Hunter Greene’s cruising for a slight bruising here against a complete Chicago Cubs offense, and on the other side of the coin the Cincinnati Reds stand just 25th in wRC+ to lefties which can’t be what you want to hear if you’re looking to bet on the home team. Matthew Boyd isn’t just any lefty, either, he’s been a revelation for a Cubs staff which has been riddled with injury. His 2.98 ERA is backed by a solid 3.40 xERA and a solid strikeout to walk ratio, and while he’s a fellow fly-baller like Greene he’s done a much better job of limiting barrels even if he’s allowing runners more consistently. This could be a game which comes down to one or two big blows, and I trust the Cubs to land them.

Seiya Suzuki is having a solid campaign for the Cubbies, hitting .253 with 12 home runs and 43 RBI. He ranks Top 10 in the majors in long balls and has gone deep three times in his last nine contests. Suzuki is a consistent power threat, and there’s reason to believe he could smack No. 13 today. Hunter Greene returns from the IL for the Reds and although he is an electric starter with fantastic numbers, Suzuki has had success against the flamethrower. He’s 6-for-13 lifetime with two homers and six RBI. The Japanese outfielder has Greene’s number. 

Left-hander Matthew Boyd takes the mound for Chicago tonight and is a strong candidate to back. Through nine starts this season, Boyd is 4-2 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Specifically, the southpaw is worth targeting in the strikeout market. He ranks in the top third of the league in both chase rate and strikeout rate. Boyd has recorded more than 6.5 strikeouts in each of his past three starts.

Cubs southpaw Matthew Boyd has pitched to a 2.98 ERA through nine starts and the Reds bat just .206 against lefties. Boyd has been terrific his first time through a lineup, posting an OBA of .181 against batters in their first plate appearance. Cincy will send ace Hunter Greene and his 2.36 ERA to the hill. Greene has a 2.25 ERA with an OBA of .111 in the opening frame.

When it comes to his BABIP ability, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The #1 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Among all major league parks, Great American Ball Park's left field fences are the 6th-shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 7th-best of the day for batters.

Matt McLain's BABIP skill is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #1 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 7th-best of the day for batters.. Matt McLain will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in today's matchup.. Matt McLain has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 9th-best hitter in the majors.. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Great American Ball Park ranks as the #1 ballpark in the majors for lefty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 7th-best of the day for batters.. Batting from the opposite that Hunter Greene throws from, Kyle Tucker will have an edge in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seiya Suzuki in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The #1 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Among all major league parks, Great American Ball Park's left field fences are the 6th-shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 7th-best of the day for batters.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Michael Busch ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Great American Ball Park ranks as the #1 ballpark in the majors for lefty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 4th-shallowest right field fences in the majors are found in Great American Ball Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 7th-best of the day for batters.. Batting from the opposite that Hunter Greene throws from, Michael Busch will have the upper hand today.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. The #1 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Among all major league parks, Great American Ball Park's left field fences are the 6th-shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 7th-best of the day for batters.. Dansby Swanson has made big gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 12.2% seasonal rate to 19% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

When it comes to his home run skill, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. Great American Ball Park ranks as the #1 ballpark in the majors for lefty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 4th-shallowest right field fences in the majors are found in Great American Ball Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 7th-best of the day for batters.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ian Happ ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ian Happ is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game.. Great American Ball Park ranks as the #1 ballpark in the majors for lefty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 7th-best of the day for batters.. The switch-hitting Ian Happ will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Hunter Greene.

Spencer Steer is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today.. The #1 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 7th-best of the day for batters.. Spencer Steer will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in today's game.. Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.4% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Austin Hays is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #1 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 7th-best of the day for batters.. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Austin Hays will have an advantage today.. Austin Hays pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.2% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.