The Boston Red Sox can sweep the New York Mets with a third consecutive win at Fenway Park on Wednesday, May 21.
Boston has go-to lefty Garrett Crochet set to take the hill, and my Mets vs. Red Sox predictions and top MLB picks are calling for the southpaw to hold the New York lineup in check tonight.
Mets vs Red Sox prediction
My Mets vs Red Sox best bet: Red Sox moneyline (-135 at Pinnacle)
The Boston Red Sox have a massive pitching advantage on Wednesday, and I don’t think it’s fully priced in enough in the moneyline odds.
New York Mets righty Tylor Megill has stumbled across his past four starts with a 7.23 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, and he’s also pitched poorly on the road dating back to the beginning of the 2023 campaign with respective 5.89 and 1.67 marks across 107 innings. It’s a different story for the Sox.
Boston lefty Garrett Crochet has allowed two runs or fewer in nine of 10 starts, and I particularly appreciate that his barrel percentage and hard-hit rate are down for a second consecutive season.
Crochet’s sporting a rock-solid 2.00 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 3.01 xFIP, while holding opposing hitters to a measly .200 batting average.
The Mets have a solid offense against lefties with a seventh-ranked wOBA, but the wind is forecasted to be blowing in, and it will be a touch chilly at Fenway on Wednesday night.
I expect Crochet to hold the visiting Mets in check, and the Boston lineup to put enough runs on the board to sweep the three-game set.
Mets vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Red Sox moneyline
Garrett Crochet 6+ strikeouts
Rafael Devers 2+ hits + runs + RBI
In addition to the highlighted tidy statistical profile, Crochet has also fanned batters in bunches. He’s posted a 29.1 K% and struck out six or more in eight of 10 starts, including each of his past seven. Just note, the Mets have the fourth-lowest K% against lefties, so that’s why I used the alternative total.
Boston star Rafael Devers has caught fire during a monster 12-game stretch with a .564 wOBA, .419 ISO, and 1.366 OPS. He’s also hit the Over in this market in eight of those 12 contests.
Of course, Megill has also served up a healthy .354 wOBA and .813 OPS to left-handed hitters on the road during his career.
Mets vs Red Sox odds
Mets vs Red Sox live odds
Mets vs Red Sox opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +125 | Boston -150
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-165) | Boston -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Mets vs Red Sox trend
The Red Sox have covered the run line in eight of their last 13 games (+4.50 units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Mets vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Wednesday, 5-21-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet New York, NESN |
| Mets starting pitcher | Tylor Megill (3-4, 3.74 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Garrett Crochet (4-3, 2.00 ERA) |
Mets vs Red Sox latest injuries
Mets vs Red Sox weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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