Detroit @ St. Louis picks

Erik Fedde gets deep and projects for almost 18 outs today on 96 pitches. Over his last four starts, he has thrown 103, 101, 109, and 93 pitches. He will get a chance today to get deep vs. a Detroit lineup that strikes out at a Top-10 rate. Fedde is not a K/inning guy, but just five cents for five or more Ks when 18 outs are in the cards is a good spot in a home start where he might have to miss some bats with double-digit winds blowing out to right field. His K-rate is at a four-year low right now, showing a chance for regression to more punchouts. Excluding his first start of the season, Fedde has hit at least four Ks in each of his home starts. He might not get eight, but he is flirting with this number because of his leash.

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Erick Fedde has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 5.4 adjusted pitches each game.. The Detroit Tigers have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Spencer Torkelson, Akil Baddoo, Riley Greene, Jake Rogers).. It is anticipated that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Roberto Ortiz) behind the plate in this game.. Home field advantage typically improves pitcher stats across the board, and Erick Fedde will hold that advantage today.. With a 2 discrepancy between Erick Fedde's 5.50 K/9 and his 7.50 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year in terms of strikeouts and should perform better in future games.

Zach McKinstry has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (55% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height among all stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today.. Zach McKinstry will hold the platoon advantage against Erick Fedde in today's matchup.. Zach McKinstry hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colt Keith in the 84th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Colt Keith is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height among all stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today.. Colt Keith will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Erick Fedde today.

Gleyber Torres's batting average talent is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Gleyber Torres is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height among all stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today.. Last season, Gleyber Torres had an average launch angle of 14° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 18.7°.

When estimating his BABIP talent, Riley Greene is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Riley Greene is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height among all stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today.. Batting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Riley Greene will have an advantage today.

Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height among all stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today.. Victor Scott II will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

Jordan Walker's BABIP ability is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height among all stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today.. Jordan Walker will hold the platoon advantage against Tarik Skubal today.. Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height among all stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today.. Pedro Pages will have the handedness advantage over Tarik Skubal in today's game.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's game.. Pedro Pages's launch angle in recent games (54.5° in the past 7 days) is a considerable increase over his 15.9° seasonal mark.

When estimating his BABIP talent, Riley Greene is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Riley Greene is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height among all stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today.. Batting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Riley Greene will have an advantage today.

Masyn Winn is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height among all stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today.. Hitting from the opposite that Tarik Skubal throws from, Masyn Winn will have an advantage today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage in today's game.