Atlanta @ Washington picks

Spencer Strider got one start this season before suffering a hamstring injury that landed him on the IL. He didn't pitch in a rehab game but threw 65 pitches in a simulated game. His velocity was down in that session, and the range of pitch counts today has 80 at the ceiling. THE BAT is projecting 74 pitches, which is why all of his volume markets have been getting bet to the Under. His Under 5.5 Ks projects well at -130 or better and his Under 1.5 earned runs have already moved from -105 to -135. His Over 3.5 hits might be a good look at plus money but the leash is a little worrisome. I’m going with the Under walks as THE BAT is projecting just 1.35. Hopefully, he has a 70-pitch limit or 12 outs. There's not a lot of need to push him here after his lost 2024 season and an early lower-body injury to begin 2025.

As it relates to his home run ability, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. Batting from the opposite that Mitchell Parker throws from, Marcell Ozuna will have an edge today.. Marcell Ozuna pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Out of every team playing today, the 7th-weakest infield defense is that of the Washington Nationals.

When it comes to his BABIP talent, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. Hitting from the opposite that Spencer Strider throws from, James Wood will have the upper hand in today's game.. James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Hitters such as James Wood with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Spencer Strider who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Matt Olson projects as the 16th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Olson is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Nationals Park has the 9th-shallowest RF dimensions in MLB.. Out of every team playing today, the 7th-weakest infield defense is that of the Washington Nationals.. Matt Olson has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.7-mph average to last season's 91.3-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Murphy in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Sean Murphy is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Sean Murphy will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitchell Parker today.. Sean Murphy pulls a lot of his flyballs (36% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Out of every team playing today, the 7th-weakest infield defense is that of the Washington Nationals.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 80th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Nathaniel Lowe is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Nathaniel Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Spencer Strider in today's game.. Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme flyball hitters like Nathaniel Lowe tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Spencer Strider.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the worst ballpark in the game for right-handed batting average.. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which tends to lead to less offense.. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 5th-driest conditions of all games on the slate today at 39%.. Sean Murphy will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.. Sean Murphy's launch angle this year (7°) is quite a bit worse than his 10.2° angle last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Crews in the 79th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Dylan Crews has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Dylan Crews will hold that advantage today.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.246) suggests that Dylan Crews has had bad variance on his side this year with his .191 actual batting average.

When it comes to his BABIP talent, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. Hitting from the opposite that Spencer Strider throws from, James Wood will have the upper hand in today's game.. James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Hitters such as James Wood with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Spencer Strider who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Michael Harris II has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Out of every team playing today, the 7th-weakest infield defense is that of the Washington Nationals.. Michael Harris II has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .222 mark is a fair amount lower than his .283 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Matt Olson projects as the 16th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Olson is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Nationals Park has the 9th-shallowest RF dimensions in MLB.. Out of every team playing today, the 7th-weakest infield defense is that of the Washington Nationals.. Matt Olson has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.7-mph average to last season's 91.3-mph mark.