Seattle @ San Diego Picks & Props

The #3 field in the league for suppressing batting average to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to less offense. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly correlated with cold weather, and the weather report for this matchup projects the lowest temperature on the slate today at 59°. Hitting from the same side that Emerson Hancock throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. meets a tough challenge in today's matchup. There has been a significant decline in Fernando Tatis Jr.'s launch angle from last year's 9.7° to 6.7° this year.

Petco Park profiles as the #26 ballpark in baseball for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to less offense. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly correlated with cold weather, and the weather report for this matchup projects the lowest temperature on the slate today at 59°. Compared to his seasonal figure of 9.8°, Jackson Merrill has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (6.6°) in the past 14 days.

The #3 field in the league for suppressing batting average to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to less offense. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly correlated with cold weather, and the weather report for this matchup projects the lowest temperature on the slate today at 59°. Emerson Hancock will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Manny Machado in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Manny Machado's true offensive ability to be a .347, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .042 gap between that figure and his actual .389 wOBA.

Petco Park profiles as the #26 ballpark in baseball for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to less offense. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly correlated with cold weather, and the weather report for this matchup projects the lowest temperature on the slate today at 59°. Luis Arraez has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.3-mph dropping to 80-mph over the last 14 days. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 87.9-mph EV last year has lowered to 85.2-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Benjamin Williamson in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Bats such as Benjamin Williamson with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Nick Pivetta who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today. Over the past 7 days, Benjamin Williamson's 23.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.8%. A consistent launch angle is an indicator of good hitting, and Benjamin Williamson has been very consistent with his in recent games, posting a 35.8° launch angle standard deviation over the last 7 days.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. The shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today. Randy Arozarena has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.8-mph to 96.8-mph over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lockridge in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Brandon Lockridge hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball batters like Brandon Lockridge are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Emerson Hancock. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Brandon Lockridge will hold that advantage today.

The shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Elias Diaz will hold that advantage in today's game. Elias Diaz's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (9.5°) is quite a bit better than his 6° angle last season.

Jason Heyward will hold the platoon advantage against Emerson Hancock in today's matchup. Jason Heyward is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Jason Heyward will hold that advantage in today's game. Jason Heyward has been unlucky this year, putting up a .222 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .296 — a .074 discrepancy.

When it comes to his BABIP talent, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Julio Rodriguez is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game. The shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today. Julio Rodriguez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.2-mph to 96.9-mph in the last week's worth of games.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, J.P. Crawford ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). J.P. Crawford has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, J.P. Crawford will have an edge in today's game. J.P. Crawford hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. The shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners. Xander Bogaerts will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Jake Cronenworth will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Emerson Hancock today. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners.

The switch-hitting Leody Taveras will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Nick Pivetta. Leody Taveras hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today. There has been a significant improvement in Leody Taveras's launch angle from last year's 14.1° to 25.9° this year.

Cal Raleigh is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today. Cal Raleigh has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, improving his 15.5% rate last year to 20.5% this year. Cal Raleigh has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 20.5% seasonal rate to 26.7% in the last 7 days. Cal Raleigh's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 17.6% to 23%.

Hitting from the opposite that Emerson Hancock throws from, Gavin Sheets will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Gavin Sheets is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners. Gavin Sheets will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Gavin Sheets has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 8.5% seasonal rate to 13.8% over the last two weeks.

The shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Miles Mastrobuoni will have the upper hand in today's game. The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Miles Mastrobuoni has had some very poor luck this year. His .244 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .317. Miles Mastrobuoni has exhibited good plate discipline since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile with a 1.93 K/BB rate.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jorge Polanco ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jorge Polanco is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today. Jorge Polanco has made big improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 9% rate last season to 15.2% this season. Jorge Polanco has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.9-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 91.8-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Moore in the 80th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. The shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today. In the past 14 days, Dylan Moore has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 26.9° compared to his seasonal mark of 17.5°. Dylan Moore's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 18% to 24.1%.

Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Rowdy Tellez will have an advantage in today's game. Rowdy Tellez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today. The Barrel% of Rowdy Tellez has significantly improved, with an increase from 8.1% last year to 15.5% this year. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.1°, Rowdy Tellez has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 52° mark over the last week.