Washington @ Baltimore Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Keibert Ruiz in the 1st percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Keibert Ruiz will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Keibert Ruiz's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal figure of 86 mph to 79.7 mph. Keibert Ruiz's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (2.9°) is a significant dropoff from his 14.2° mark last season. Keibert Ruiz's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined recently, decreasing from 9.7% on the season to 0% in the past week.

Jake Irvin will have the handedness advantage against Ryan Mountcastle today. Ryan Mountcastle has displayed weak plate discipline this year, placing in the 15th percentile with a 4.58 K/BB rate.

In terms of plate discipline, Gunnar Henderson's ability is quite poor, putting up a 3.97 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 20th percentile.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for CJ Abrams today. CJ Abrams's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 92.4-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 89.5-mph in the last 7 days. CJ Abrams has been lucky this year, putting up a .395 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .323 — a .072 discrepancy.

Over the last week, Ryan O'Hearn's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.2% down to 0%. Ryan O'Hearn's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased of late, falling from 43.8% on the season to 25% in the last two weeks' worth of games. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ryan O'Hearn's true offensive talent to be a .340, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .047 difference between that mark and his actual .387 wOBA.

Jackson Holliday has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Jackson Holliday's footspeed has decreased this season. His 29.36 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.88 ft/sec now. Utilizing Statcast data, Jackson Holliday ranks in the 17th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .219. Sporting a 3.88 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Jackson Holliday has shown bad plate discipline, grading out in the 20th percentile.

Cedric Mullins is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. The #4 park in baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the slate at 88°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters. Cedric Mullins will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jake Irvin today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 77th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. The #4 park in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the slate at 88°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Ramon Laureano will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

When estimating his BABIP skill, James Wood is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). James Wood is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. The #4 park in baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the slate at 88°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Crews in the 80th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. The #4 park in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the slate at 88°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters. Dylan Crews has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. The #4 park in baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. In the league, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's RF dimensions are the shallowest. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the slate at 88°.

The #4 park in baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the slate at 88°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters. Josh Bell has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88-mph to 94.7-mph over the last 14 days. Josh Bell has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last year's 92.8-mph average.

The #4 park in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the slate at 88°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters. Ramon Urias hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Ramon Urias will hold that advantage in today's game.

Nathaniel Lowe's BABIP skill is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Nathaniel Lowe is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. The #4 park in baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the slate at 88°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heston Kjerstad in the 83rd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. The #4 park in baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the slate at 88°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters. Hitting from the opposite that Jake Irvin throws from, Heston Kjerstad will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

Jose Tena's BABIP skill is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #4 park in baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the slate at 88°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters. Jose Tena will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Gibson in today's matchup.

The #4 park in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the slate at 88°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters. Extreme groundball hitters like Maverick Handley tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jake Irvin. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Maverick Handley will hold that advantage today.

The #4 park in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the slate at 88°. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters. Jacob Young has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today. Jacob Young's launch angle of late (3° in the past 14 days) is considerably better than his -3.2° seasonal angle.