Los Angeles @ San Diego picks

This prop was as high as +130 this morning but with 5.13 projected hits allowed, this even-money prop still projects +EV, per THE BAT. Jose Soriano has had hit totals that usually open at 4.5. He doesn’t get deep and struggles with command, which also drives up his pitch count. He has gotten to 18 outs in just three of his eight starts and has thrown more than 90 pitches twice. It’s not an easy matchup vs. the San Diego Padres, but that is priced. He’s a hit-per-inning pitcher who doesn’t go six innings.

Jorge Soler projects as the 17th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jorge Soler is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Jorge Soler hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. When it comes to his home runs, Jorge Soler has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His 22.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 25.1.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Manny Machado hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Manny Machado will hold that advantage in today's game.

Among all parks, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Kyren Paris has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.3-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 88.6-mph average.. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.8°, Kyren Paris has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 47° mark in the past 7 days.. Kyren Paris has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .175 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .199 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Logan O'Hoppe in the 95th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Logan O'Hoppe hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Logan O'Hoppe has made significant gains with his Barrel%, improving his 12% rate last season to 17.9% this year.. Logan O'Hoppe's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 47.1% to 55.4%.

Among all parks, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Martin Maldonado will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.. Martin Maldonado has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.6-mph average to last year's 93.5-mph figure.. Martin Maldonado's 17.9° launch angle (a reliable metric to evaluate a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the highest in the league: 84th percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Taylor Ward ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Taylor Ward is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Taylor Ward has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 14.4% seasonal rate to 23.8% in the last two weeks.. Taylor Ward's launch angle this season (21.4°) is a significant increase over his 17.3° angle last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jo Adell in the 94th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Among all parks, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Over the last 7 days, Jo Adell's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.7% up to 40%.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Jo Adell's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.7-mph over the course of the season to 105.1-mph lately.

Yoan Moncada's BABIP ability is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yoan Moncada is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. The switch-hitting Yoan Moncada will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Dylan Cease.. Yoan Moncada has made notable gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 12% seasonal rate to 25% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The Los Angeles Angels have been the unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward. Among all parks, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. The 10.8% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Angels ranks them as the #3 club in MLB this year by this standard.. Los Angeles's 94.2-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #1 team in the game this year by this standard.

In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Jose Soriano throws from, Jason Heyward will have an edge in today's game.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Jason Heyward will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Jason Heyward has been unlucky this year, posting a .225 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .296 — a .071 difference.