Pittsburgh @ New York picks

Soto has run hot and cold to start his tenure with the Mets, and he strung together an 11-for-30 heater with nine runs and a .474 on-base percentage across eight contests prior to his recent two-game funk that's resulted in an 0-for-9 stretch at the dish. The tough pitching matchup against Pittsburgh ace Paul Skenes is built into the price, and Soto has been elite with a career .417 wOBA and .989 OPS against right-handed hurlers. Plus, he’s already scored 30 runs across 41 games this year.

New York Mets lefty David Peterson is coming off a season-high 104 pitches, which could mean a lesser workload for a pitcher who is already 4-3 to the Under on this total this season. It’s the light-hitting Pittsburgh Pirates but Peterson rarely gets deep as just two of his seven starts have gone for more than 91 pitches. That makes the triple-digit outing even more of a worry for his length today. The last time Peterson threw 104 more pitches was in 2023 where he tossed 110 pitches and lasted just 61 pitches the next outing despite going four innings and one earned run.

Bryan Reynolds's BABIP skill is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. In MLB, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Among every team on the slate today, the 11th-worst infield defense belongs to the New York Mets.

The New York Mets projected lineup projects as the best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.. In MLB, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Playing on the road typically reduces pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Paul Skenes in today's matchup.. Paul Skenes's fastball velocity has decreased 1.6 mph this year (97.3 mph) below where it was last year (98.9 mph).

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Henry Davis will have the handedness advantage over David Peterson in today's matchup.. Henry Davis pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 90th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.. Among every team on the slate today, the 11th-worst infield defense belongs to the New York Mets.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.233) implies that Henry Davis has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .210 actual wOBA.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games. In MLB, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. The Pittsburgh Pirates have 9 batters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage over David Peterson in today's game.. Among every team on the slate today, the 11th-worst infield defense belongs to the New York Mets.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 84th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. In MLB, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Francisco Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Francisco Alvarez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.7-mph average to last season's 88.7-mph average.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Andrew McCutchen is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Andrew McCutchen will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against David Peterson today.. Andrew McCutchen hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's shallowest CF fences today.