The good weather is here and it’s a great week for betting pitcher props. It’s a Monday slate and I’m ready to have a week.
These are my three favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Monday, May 12.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 12
Liberatore u2.5 earned runs (+116)
Gusto u4.5 hits allowed (-113)
Peterson u17.5 outs (+100)
Today's SP best bets
Cards vs. Phillies
The angle: Short-leashed Matthew Libertore has been pitching great and gets the Phillies fresh off Sunday Night Baseball
The move: Matthew Liberatore Under 2.5 earned runs (+116 at Caesars)
I have never really taken advantage of fading Sunday Night Baseball teams on Monday but I’m aware that some believe it is a thing. That makes tonight a great spot to back Matthew Liberatore, who has pitched great for the St. Louis Cardinals and gets a traveling Philadelphia Phillies team fresh off a low-scoring SNB game.
Liberatore has allowed two or fewer runs in five straight starts and doesn’t project for a pitch count north of 90 pitches. He’s pitching to a 3.07 ERA but might be even better with a 2.79 xERA. He has been a solid pitcher and the plus money on this prop with his potential leash is a buy for our MLB picks.
Royals vs. Astros
The angle: Ryan Gusto is coming from the bullpen and might not see more than 75 pitches today
The move: Ryan Gusto Under 4.5 hits allowed (-113 at Caesars)
Ryan Gusto is projected for just 77 pitches and fewer than 15 outs. His Under 14.5 outs are paying +139 and also +EV but the Under hits are projecting better.
He last made a relief appearance on May 4 and has made four starts this year, but threw 72, 68, 80, and 90 pitches in them. He went Under this number in three of those outings and gets a weak-hitting Kansas City Royals lineup at home tonight.
If you’re aggressive, take the Under 14.5 outs, but that is a very sweaty total. There are a lot of paths for his Unders today and, hopefully, four innings and 75 pitches is the ceiling.
Pirates vs. Mets
The angle: David Peterson is already a short-leashed pitcher but is also coming off a three-year high in pitches
The move: David Peterson Under 17.5 outs (+100 at Caesars)
New York Mets lefty David Peterson is coming off a season-high 104 pitches, which could mean a lesser workload for a pitcher who is already 4-3 to the Under on this total this season.
It’s the light-hitting Pittsburgh Pirates but Peterson rarely gets deep as just two of his seven starts have gone for more than 91 pitches. That makes the triple-digit outing even more of a worry for his length today.
The last time Peterson threw 104 more pitches was in 2023 where he tossed 110 pitches and lasted just 61 pitches the next outing despite going four innings and one earned run.
Not intended for use in MA.
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