Kansas City @ Houston picks

With Wacha on the mound again tonight, I expect this to once again be a prototypical Royals game, in which Wacha keeps them in the contest while the Kansas City lineup scraps for every run it can manage. Regardless of who wins, I don’t expect much scoring, which is why I’m taking the Under tonight.

Ryan Gusto is projected for just 77 pitches and fewer than 15 outs. His Under 14.5 outs are paying +139 and also +EV but the Under hits are projecting better. He last made a relief appearance on May 4 and has made four starts this year, but threw 72, 68, 80, and 90 pitches in them. He went Under this number in three of those outings and gets a weak-hitting Kansas City Royals lineup at home tonight. If you’re aggressive, take the Under 14.5 outs, but that is a very sweaty total. There are a lot of paths for his Unders today and, hopefully, four innings and 75 pitches is the ceiling.