Toronto @ Seattle picks

It's not even mid-May, and I already don't trust the Jays bullpen to hold leads. They are getting brutal relief pitching, and the Mariners will likely be playing from ahead anyway, behind a gem from Luis Castillo. 

As it relates to his BABIP talent, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Julio Rodriguez is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Homers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league stadiums.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Julio Rodriguez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Julio Rodriguez has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last year's 94-mph mark.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, George Springer ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. George Springer is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Homers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league stadiums.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams playing today.. George Springer has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 16.9% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the last week.

Daulton Varsho is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Given Luis Castillo's large platoon split, Daulton Varsho will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Daulton Varsho can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.. Daulton Varsho pulls many of his flyballs (39.1% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects T-Mobile Park as the worst venue in the game for run-scoring.. T-Mobile Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hurlers.. The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side (0) today against Kevin Gausman. Extreme flyball batters like Cal Raleigh are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Kevin Gausman.

Jorge Polanco has been pulled from the game early 22% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects T-Mobile Park as the worst venue in the game for run-scoring.. T-Mobile Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hurlers.. As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the dish, Jorge Polanco will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side against Kevin Gausman today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in the league as it relates to his batting average skill.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams playing today.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 15.4% seasonal rate to 25.9% in the past 14 days.

Homers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league stadiums.. Rowdy Tellez will have the handedness advantage over Kevin Gausman in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Rowdy Tellez will hold that advantage today.. Rowdy Tellez has made significant gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 8.1% rate last year to 15.3% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in the league as it relates to his batting average skill.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams playing today.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 15.4% seasonal rate to 25.9% in the past 14 days.

Tyler Heineman pulls a lot of his flyballs (36% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams playing today.

When estimating his home run ability, Dylan Moore ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Dylan Moore pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.1% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Dylan Moore will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Compared to last season, Dylan Moore has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 18% to 24.6% this season.. Checking in at the 77th percentile, Dylan Moore sports a .290 Isolated Power rate (ISO) since the start of last season.