Los Angeles @ Miami picks

I'm not willing to get in front of the freight train that is the Los Angeles Dodgers. They boast one of the best offenses in the league and now get to face a bad pitcher in Cal Quantrill. Quantrill has pitched to an 8.10 ERA and has been hit hard in every start this season. Give me the Dodgers here on the run line. 

Shohei Ohtani is having another MVP season so far, hitting .293 with nine home runs and 13 RBI. The slugger ranks Top 7 in the big leagues in long balls and has gone deep in two of his last three games. Ohtani also smacked a homer in the series opener against the Miami Marlins on Monday. Today, he’ll face Cal Quantrill, who owns an ERA over 8.00. He’s also allowed five home runs already, and Ohtani is 5-for-18 lifetime against Quantrill as well. He’s already left the yard twice versus Miami in 2025, and eight of his nine home runs have come against right-handed pitchers. There’s a lot of evidence backing up this pick. Lock it in as Ohtani looks to hit double-digits in homers. 

L.A. is firing on all cylinders, winning eight of its last nine games. The Dodgers have destroyed right-handed pitching with a 134 wRC+ (second) and .365 wOBA (first) since April 20. Shohei Ohtani has been a big part of the equation, homering in three of his last six games while scoring 10 runs. Call Quantrill has been obliterated by lefties (.436/.458/.691) and is in trouble against Ohtani and his 185 wRC+ against RHP. The superstar has collected 2+ total bases in five of his last six games, and I’ll bet on him doing so again on Tuesday.

Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which often leads to lower offensive output.. Cal Quantrill has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 6 opposite-handed bats today.. Because flyball pitchers have a sizeable advantage over flyball hitters, Cal Quantrill and his 32.1% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in today's game being matched up with 4 opposing FB hitters.. Cal Quantrill will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his metrics across the board.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Mookie Betts ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Mookie Betts is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. Mookie Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Out of every team in action today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Miami Marlins.. Mookie Betts has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.5-mph to 92.4-mph over the last week.

Eric Wagaman is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Eric Wagaman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Eric Wagaman will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.. Eric Wagaman has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.1-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 91.8-mph figure.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.325) may lead us to conclude that Eric Wagaman has experienced some negative variance this year with his .296 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 87th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Kyle Stowers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Hitting from the opposite that Tony Gonsolin throws from, Kyle Stowers will have an advantage in today's game.. Kyle Stowers will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.. Kyle Stowers has made notable strides with his Barrel%, improving his 11% rate last season to 20.7% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddie Freeman as the 10th-best batter in the league when assessing his batting average ability.. Freddie Freeman is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Cal Quantrill throws from, Freddie Freeman will have the upper hand in today's game.. Freddie Freeman has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.. Out of every team in action today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Miami Marlins.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Andy Pages ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Andy Pages has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (97% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. Among all parks, LoanDepot Park's CF dimensions are the 4th-shallowest.. Out of every team in action today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Miami Marlins.. Last year, Andy Pages had an average launch angle of 15.5° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 20.2°.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 2nd-best hitter in MLB.. Shohei Ohtani is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Batting from the opposite that Cal Quantrill throws from, Shohei Ohtani will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Shohei Ohtani is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.. Out of every team in action today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Miami Marlins.

Agustin Ramirez is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Among all parks, LoanDepot Park's CF dimensions are the 4th-shallowest.. Agustin Ramirez will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Bashing 3 homers over the past 14 days, Agustin Ramirez has been on fire recently.. Over the past 7 days, Agustin Ramirez's maximum exit velocity (a good proxy for recent form and raw power) has been 112.4-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in baseball.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dane Myers as the 10th-best batter in the majors when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Dane Myers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.2% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball bats like Dane Myers are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tony Gonsolin.. Dane Myers will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. In the last week's worth of games, Dane Myers's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.4% up to 37.5%.

Batting from the opposite that Tony Gonsolin throws from, Matt Mervis will have an edge in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Matt Mervis will hold that advantage today.