Houston @ Milwaukee picks

Right-hander Hayden Wesneski takes the mound for the Houston Astros, and he is a good sell-high candidate. Through five starts this season, Wesneski owns a 3.86 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. That said, his underlying metrics suggest regression is likely. Wesneski has a 4.21 expected ERA (xERA) and ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected batting average (xBA), barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers hand the ball to right-handed rookie Chad Patrick. Through seven appearances, Patrick boasts a 2.87 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. However, like Wesneski, Patrick’s analytics indicate regression may be coming. The rookie ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, and hard-hit rate.

The Astros are 21st in the majors in OPS (.677) while the Milwaukee Brewers are 22nd (.676). Both lineups have been especially slow out of the gate, with the Stros plating a run in the first inning at the lowest rate in the majors (14.7%) and the Brewers just three spots above them at 22.2%. Milwaukee is starting rookie Chad Patrick who has a 2.87 ERA through six starts. Patrick has pitched to a sizzling 0.75 ERA while holding opponents to a .256 slugging percentage through the first four innings. Houston is replying with Hayden Wesneski. Wesneski has a mediocre 3.86 ERA but he tends to start strong, posting a 1.80 ERA with an OBA of .210 through the first two innings.