Los Angeles @ Atlanta picks
Truist Park
LAD vs ATL Picks
MLB Picks
Like many pitchers, Bryce Elder has struggled against the Dodgers, surrendering a .993 OPS to L.A. hitters over 63 at-bats. Meanwhile, Dustin May has given up 10 earned runs across his last two starts, and the right-hander could be in trouble against a Braves lineup that caught fire to end April. Expect Sunday Night Baseball to feature a high-scoring affair at Truist Park.
The Dodgers pace the majors in wOBA and OPS against right-handed arms and have a plus-matchup against Braves righty Bryce Elder on Sunday. Elder is starting out of necessity because of the 168 starting pitchers with at least 70 innings over the past two years, his 6.10 ERA and .293 batting average allowed to opposing hitters both rank 163rd. Finally, 16 of Los Angeles’ 23 wins have come by two or more runs this season, and the Dodgers have the lowest bullpen xFIP in baseball while the Braves rank 18th.
Mookie Betts o0.5 Total Home Runs (+500)
Mookie Betts has been seeing the ball well recently. He has recorded at least one hit in each of the past six games, posting a .400 batting average, .640 slugging percentage and 1.047 OPS over that stretch. He is likely to keep things rolling against right-hander Bryce Elder, who takes the mound for Atlanta. Through 11 plate appearances against Elder, Betts sports a .556 slugging percentage and one home run.
Shohei Ohtani o0.5 Total Home Runs (+245)
Bryce Elder has struggled this season, posting a 5.33 ERA and 1.41 WHIP through five starts. His analytics suggest that positive regression is unlikely, as he ranks in the 31st percentile in xERA and 24th percentile in xBA. Shohei Ohtani has homered in two of the past four games, posting a .313 batting average, .813 slugging percentage, and 1.234 OPS over that span. He is also 2-for-5 in his career against Elder, with one of those hits being a home run.
Teoscar Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+120)
Like Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez will also benefit from the wind blowing out to left field, which is part of the reason that BatX projects him over this number. But more than that, his placement in the lineup means he'll benefit from a few players in front of him who don't often hit ground balls. That includes the aforementioned Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, and Mookie Betts. Hernandez has had some decent success against Elder, too, with a modest .582 OPS. However, this is more about the players in front of him. Betts, Freeman, and Ohtani collectively have an average OPS of just over 1.000 against Elder in their careers. I'll take Teoscar to reap the benefits of that.
Freddie Freeman o1.5 Total Bases (-109)
The key to success against Atlanta Braves righty Bryce Elder is getting the ball into the air. Freddie Freeman is good at that. The veteran comes into this game this season with the third-lowest ground ball rate among Los Angeles Dodgers players, but throughout his career, he's typically managed to keep a low number in this metric. Today, he'll have two advantages. The brisk winds expected to blow out to left field will aid his ball carry, as that's where he hits many of his fly balls. Secondly, the pitch mix Freeman will see fits him well. Elder is a big, offspeed pitcher, using the sinker and slider as his primary tools. As he has throughout his career, Freeman has had great success against those two pitches this season, leading Dodger players in batting average and slugging against them.
Bryce Elder o5.5 Hits Allowed (+104)
Elder has already faced this Dodgers lineup this season and went four innings while giving up just three hits. He didn't go Over this number because the Dodgers' longball threat elicited the Braves to make a change at the 70-pitch mark instead of the expected workload. It's unlikely that L.A. will hit multiple homers on just 70 pitches again, and instead, I expect them to get after Elder at the plate via multiple hits. When facing essentially this same lineup last May, that's precisely what happened when he gave up seven hits in just over three innings. That's far more indicative of what we expect here and goes back to what I said at the onset. The Dodgers will enter today with the third-lowest ground ball rate in the sport and the highest fly-ball rate in the MLB. That's a Bryce Elder nightmare.
