Washington @ Philadelphia picks

The Phillies took the first two games in this series and have now won four in a row. They are second in the NL East with a 17-13 record while the Nationals are 13-18 and have dropped four of their last five. The Nats are starting Brad Lord who has a 4.67 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP in 17 1/3 innings. The rookie has been forced to start due to injuries in the rotation and he rarely goes deeper than four innings. That puts a lot of pressure on a Washington bullpen has easily the worst ERA (7.41) and WHIP (1.77) in the majors. The Phillies are responding with right-hander Taijuan Walker has a 2.78 ERA through five starts. The Nats are 18th in the majors in OPS (.694) and that number plummets to just .613 on the road. Meanwhile, Philly is 11th in OPS (.721) with that surging to .797 at home.

Brad Lord is not a well-known name for a reason. He is a short-leashed SP who has made four starts and has not thrown more than 80 pitches. However, he is not very good, so betting on his other Unders is not advised as the leash is not fully priced in here, in my opinion. He has had some walk clusters but is coming off an 80-pitch, zero-walk outing and is projected for around 1.5 walks today from THE BAT, making this better than a coin flip at giant plus-money odds. It’s a tough matchup vs. the Phillies with winds blowing out to left but this is one of the best +EV MLB picks on the projections today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the 3rd-best hitter in baseball as it relates to his BABIP skill.. James Wood is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. James Wood will hold the platoon advantage over Taijuan Walker in today's matchup.. James Wood has a ton of pop (91st percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (27.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker doesn't generate many whiffs (22nd percentile K%) — great news for Wood.. James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Nathaniel Lowe is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Taijuan Walker throws from, Nathaniel Lowe will have an edge in today's matchup.. Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball hitters like Nathaniel Lowe generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Taijuan Walker.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the 3rd-best hitter in baseball as it relates to his BABIP skill.. James Wood is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. James Wood will hold the platoon advantage over Taijuan Walker in today's matchup.. James Wood has a ton of pop (91st percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (27.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker doesn't generate many whiffs (22nd percentile K%) — great news for Wood.. James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the 3rd-best hitter in baseball as it relates to his BABIP skill.. James Wood is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. James Wood will hold the platoon advantage over Taijuan Walker in today's matchup.. James Wood has a ton of pop (91st percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (27.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker doesn't generate many whiffs (22nd percentile K%) — great news for Wood.. James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Crews in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all parks — generally good for HRs.. Dylan Crews has made big strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 15.5% seasonal rate to 23.1% over the last 7 days.. As it relates to his batting average, Dylan Crews has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .215 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .255.. Since the start of last season, Dylan Crews's 10.4% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 77th percentile among his peers.

Josh Bell has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Extreme flyball bats like Josh Bell tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Taijuan Walker.. Josh Bell's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (21.2°) is considerably higher than his 12° figure last season.