New York @ Cleveland picks

Will Warren's hard-hit issues should again be targeted in this matchup. There's enough power during the lineup between Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, and others to attack this. You don't always think of overwhelming power when you think of the Cleveland Guardians, but plenty's still here. But generally speaking, this is a fade of Warren. He will struggle against any decent-hitting team until he can harness his swing and miss stuff more. That holds much more strongly against a team like Cleveland, which has been the foundational pillar of putting the ball in play over the last few seasons. Getting the opportunity to get this full game total at below 4.5 is just too much to pass up because even if Warren doesn't give them all up, we'll have the opportunity to get a few late against closer Devin Williams.