Toronto @ Houston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Rodgers in the 79th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Hitters such as Brendan Rodgers with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Kevin Gausman who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Brendan Rodgers will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. A low launch angle standard deviation tends to lead to a higher rate of hits on balls in play, and Brendan Rodgers's 25.4° mark (93rd percentile) since the start of last season indicates a strong hitting profile.

Jeremy Pena's batting average skill is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jeremy Pena is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. The 2nd-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Batters such as Jeremy Pena with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Kevin Gausman who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Anthony Santander is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Extreme flyball hitters like Anthony Santander are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown. Anthony Santander's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 38.2% to 53.1%. Sporting a .337 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Anthony Santander finds himself in the 78th percentile.

Yainer Diaz's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Extreme flyball batters like Yainer Diaz generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Kevin Gausman. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Yainer Diaz will hold that advantage in today's game. Yainer Diaz has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .315 mark is a good deal lower than his .334 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The #7 park in baseball for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. Hitting from the same side that Hunter Brown throws from, Bo Bichette will not have the upper hand today. Bo Bichette has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's game. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros.

The #7 park in baseball for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. Hitting from the same side that Hunter Brown throws from, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a tough challenge today. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros.

Minute Maid Park has the least fair ground among all major league parks — generally good for HRs. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Addison Barger will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Brown in today's matchup. In the past week, Addison Barger's swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 33.3% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.304) implies that Addison Barger has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .254 actual wOBA.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 3rd-best batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Yordan Alvarez will have the handedness advantage over Kevin Gausman in today's game. Yordan Alvarez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Jose Altuve is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (40.4% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 82nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. George Springer is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. The 2nd-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. George Springer has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.7-mph to 101-mph in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Ernie Clement pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Ernie Clement's launch angle this season (22.8°) is quite a bit better than his 16.2° mark last year. Ranking in the 78th percentile, Ernie Clement sits with a .266 batting average since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zachary Dezenzo in the 91st percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Zachary Dezenzo will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Zachary Dezenzo is quite athletic, checking in at the 76th percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.01 ft/sec this year.

Alan Roden's batting average ability is projected to be in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Minute Maid Park has the least fair ground among all major league parks — generally good for HRs. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Alan Roden will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown in today's matchup. In the past 7 days, Alan Roden's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 2.3% up to 11.1%.

Christian Walker is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. The 2nd-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Christian Walker will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Despite posting a .248 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Christian Walker has been unlucky given the .082 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330.

Jake Meyers has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Jake Meyers will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Jake Meyers has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 91.4-mph average over the past week to his seasonal average of 87.9-mph. Jake Meyers has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .289 mark is considerably lower than his .325 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 87th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Alejandro Kirk has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 97.3-mph average in the last week to his seasonal average of 92.8-mph. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Alejandro Kirk has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .293 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .309. With a 1.47 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Alejandro Kirk has demonstrated good plate discipline, grading out in the 93rd percentile.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46.8% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage in today's game. Isaac Paredes has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 87.6-mph average to last year's 85-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 83rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Andres Gimenez is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Minute Maid Park has the least fair ground among all major league parks — generally good for HRs. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Andres Gimenez will have the handedness advantage against Hunter Brown today.

The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense. Myles Straw's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls in recent games (22.3° in the last week's worth of games) is quite a bit better than his 10° seasonal mark.

Mauricio Dubon has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.