Chicago @ San Diego Picks & Props

Jason Heyward is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Jason Heyward will hold that advantage today. In the last week, Jason Heyward's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.1-mph over the course of the season to 92.2-mph of late. Jason Heyward's launch angle this year (25.5°) is significantly better than his 10.2° figure last year. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.233) suggests that Jason Heyward has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .210 actual batting average.

Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all major league parks. Matthew Shaw has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 83.2-mph to 85.7-mph over the last two weeks.

Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all major league parks. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Tyler Wade stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Extreme groundball hitters like Tyler Wade generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Shota Imanaga. Tyler Wade will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Tyler Wade has had some very poor luck with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .241 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .287 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to his batting average ability, Luis Arraez is projected as the best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Luis Arraez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all major league parks. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Luis Arraez has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Luis Arraez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 9th-best batter in the league. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today. Fernando Tatis Jr. will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga today. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold that advantage today.

Justin Turner is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all major league parks. Justin Turner's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 19.1% to 36%. Over the last 7 days, Justin Turner's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44%. Posting a 1.54 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Justin Turner has shown strong plate discipline, ranking in the 91st percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Manny Machado ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game. Manny Machado will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga in today's matchup. Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Manny Machado will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Ian Happ ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ian Happ is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all major league parks. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Ian Happ will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against Randy Vasquez in today's matchup. Ian Happ's launch angle this year (18.8°) is a considerable increase over his 15° figure last year.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. Dansby Swanson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. In the last week, Dansby Swanson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.8% up to 18.8%. There has been a significant improvement in Dansby Swanson's launch angle from last year's 10.2° to 24.3° this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Nico Hoerner's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, rising from 12.7% on the season to 35.3% in the past week's worth of games. Nico Hoerner's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 44.5% to 55.6%. As it relates to his batting average, Nico Hoerner has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .276 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .287. In terms of plate discipline, Nico Hoerner's skill is quite strong, sporting a 1.42 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 94th percentile.

Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all major league parks. Hitting from the opposite that Shota Imanaga throws from, Elias Diaz will have an advantage in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Elias Diaz will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past 14 days, Elias Diaz has posted a 23.7° launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Xander Bogaerts will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga in today's matchup. Xander Bogaerts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Xander Bogaerts will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 10th-best batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. Kyle Tucker will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Randy Vasquez in today's game. The Barrel% of Kyle Tucker has significantly improved, with an increase from 12.9% last year to 20.3% this year. Kyle Tucker has posted a .403 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 98th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all major league parks. Miguel Amaya's launch angle this year (21.1°) is a significant increase over his 10.9° angle last year. In the last week's worth of games, Miguel Amaya's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 76th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all major league parks. Pete Crow-Armstrong will hold the platoon advantage against Randy Vasquez today. Pete Crow-Armstrong has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .240 figure is quite a bit lower than his .256 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all major league parks. Batting from the opposite that Shota Imanaga throws from, Yuli Gurriel will have an edge in today's game. Yuli Gurriel will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Yuli Gurriel's speed has gotten better this season. His 25.2 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.47 ft/sec now. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Yuli Gurriel has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .258 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .286.

Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all major league parks. Hitting from the opposite that Shota Imanaga throws from, Martin Maldonado will have the upper hand in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Martin Maldonado will hold that advantage in today's game. Martin Maldonado has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 102.9-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal mark of 95.7-mph. Over the past 7 days, Martin Maldonado's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 75% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Jose Iglesias will have the handedness advantage against Shota Imanaga today. Extreme flyball batters like Jose Iglesias are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Shota Imanaga. Jose Iglesias will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Jose Iglesias has posted a .360 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, placing in the 92nd percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Michael Busch ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Michael Busch is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all major league parks. Michael Busch will have the handedness advantage over Randy Vasquez today. Michael Busch has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 12.8% seasonal rate to 36.4% over the past 7 days.

Oscar Gonzalez's batting average skill is projected to be in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Oscar Gonzalez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. Oscar Gonzalez will have the handedness advantage over Shota Imanaga today. Oscar Gonzalez hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Oscar Gonzalez will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gage Workman in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences among all major league parks. Gage Workman will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Randy Vasquez today.

Jon Berti has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.