Tampa Bay @ Baltimore props

Dylan Carlson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best field in baseball for lefty base hits. Among all major league stadiums, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's right field dimensions are the shallowest. Dylan Carlson has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.4-mph to 91.6-mph in the past two weeks. Last year, Dylan Carlson had an average launch angle of 15° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 21.3°.

Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best field in baseball for lefty base hits. Among all major league stadiums, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's right field dimensions are the shallowest. Jonathan Aranda will hold the platoon advantage over Zach Eflin today. Jonathan Aranda has been hot recently, putting up a a 16.7% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) over the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best field in baseball for lefty base hits. Ben Rortvedt will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zach Eflin in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 11.9°, Ben Rortvedt has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 27.3° figure in the past 7 days. Grading out in the 82nd percentile, Ben Rortvedt has notched a .325 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 88th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting BABIP to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Jose Siri has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.6-mph average to last season's 94-mph EV. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.5°, Jose Siri has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 24.7° figure in the past 14 days. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.325) provides evidence that Jose Siri has suffered from bad luck this year with his .274 actual wOBA.

Zach Eflin will hold the platoon advantage against Yandy Diaz today. Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Yandy Diaz in today's game. Over the last week, Yandy Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal figure of 91.9 mph to 84.2 mph. Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (0.7°) is significantly worse than his 4.9° angle last season. Yandy Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off lately, falling from 38.9% on the season to 30% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best field in baseball for lefty base hits. Cedric Mullins will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Pepiot in today's matchup. Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.6% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Cedric Mullins will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting BABIP to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Junior Caminero has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 102.5-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal mark of 96.8-mph. Junior Caminero's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased of late, going from 30% on the season to 41.2% in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best field in baseball for lefty base hits. Jackson Holliday will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Pepiot in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Jackson Holliday will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 7.2°, Jackson Holliday has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 11.1° figure over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best field in baseball for lefty base hits. Taylor Walls hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Taylor Walls has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 91.7-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 86.3-mph figure. Taylor Walls's launch angle recently (22.9° over the last 14 days) is considerably better than his 18.2° seasonal figure. Despite posting a .236 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Taylor Walls has been unlucky given the .045 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .281.

When estimating his BABIP ability, Colton Cowser is projected as the 19th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Colton Cowser is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best field in baseball for lefty base hits. Colton Cowser will have the handedness advantage against Ryan Pepiot today. Colton Cowser hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Christopher Morel ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting BABIP to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Over the last 7 days, Christopher Morel's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.6-mph over the course of the season to 102.9-mph of late. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.7°, Christopher Morel has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 22.4° figure in the past 14 days.

The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting BABIP to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Emmanuel Rivera has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest RF fences in today's game. Emmanuel Rivera will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Emmanuel Rivera has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 5.5% seasonal rate to 11.1% in the past week's worth of games. Over the last 7 days, Emmanuel Rivera's 22.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.5%.

The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting BABIP to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. James McCann hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and James McCann will hold that advantage today. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, James McCann has had bad variance on his side this year. His .269 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .313.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best field in baseball for lefty base hits. Adley Rutschman pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Adley Rutschman will hold that advantage in today's game.

Jose Caballero has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 90.2-mph average to last year's 87.7-mph figure.

Gunnar Henderson projects as the 16th-best batter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best field in baseball for lefty base hits. Gunnar Henderson will have the handedness advantage over Ryan Pepiot today. Gunnar Henderson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average ability is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ryan O'Hearn is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best field in baseball for lefty base hits. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Ryan O'Hearn will have an edge today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Ryan O'Hearn will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eloy Jimenez in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting BABIP to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Eloy Jimenez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Eloy Jimenez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Eloy Jimenez has been unlucky this year, posting a .291 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .322 — a .031 difference.

Anthony Santander is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best field in baseball for lefty base hits. Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Anthony Santander will hold that advantage today. Anthony Santander has made substantial gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 12.4% seasonal rate to 17.6% in the last 7 days.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Logan Driscoll has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.