Philadelphia @ Los Angeles Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 79th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Gavin Lux hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Gavin Lux will hold that advantage today. Gavin Lux has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 4.8% seasonal rate to 18.2% over the last week. In the last 14 days, Gavin Lux's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.6-mph over the course of the season to 93.1-mph recently.

Batting from the same side that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Freddie Freeman will have a disadvantage in today's matchup. This year, there has been a decline in Freddie Freeman's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.69 ft/sec last year to 25.95 ft/sec currently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 18th-best hitter in the game as it relates to his batting average ability. Trea Turner is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Dodger Stadium has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. The weather report projects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Trea Turner will hold the platoon advantage against Clayton Kershaw in today's game.

When estimating his BABIP ability, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Dodger Stadium has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. The weather report projects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Brandon Marsh's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 17.9% to 21.4%. In the last week, Brandon Marsh's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.4%.

Dodger Stadium has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. The weather report projects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Andy Pages will hold the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez today. Extreme groundball batters like Andy Pages tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez. Among every team today, the 8th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

The 2nd-best projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Dodger Stadium grades out as the #2 venue in the league for home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). On average, the fence height at Dodger Stadium is the lowest among all major league baseball stadiums. Hitting from the same side that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Shohei Ohtani encounters a tough challenge in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Shohei Ohtani's true offensive skill to be a .404, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .021 gap between that mark and his actual .425 wOBA.

Amed Rosario has been pinch hit for 14% of the time when starting against a lefty on the mound this year. Typically, batters like Amed Rosario who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Cristopher Sanchez. Amed Rosario's launch angle this year (3.3°) is a significant dropoff from his 7.5° figure last year. Amed Rosario has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .306 mark is significantly inflated relative to his .273 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. As it relates to plate discipline, Amed Rosario's ability is quite bad, sporting a 6.84 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 3rd percentile.

Edmundo Sosa's BABIP ability is projected in the 76th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Dodger Stadium has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. The weather report projects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Edmundo Sosa will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Clayton Kershaw in today's game. Edmundo Sosa is quite quick, checking in at the 95th percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.44 ft/sec this year.

Dodger Stadium has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. The weather report projects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among every team today, the 8th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Kevin Kiermaier will hold that advantage today. Kevin Kiermaier has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 90.6-mph average to last year's 87.4-mph EV.

Bryce Harper projects as the 12th-best batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. Dodger Stadium has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. The weather report projects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Bryce Harper has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.9-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.1-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. J.T. Realmuto is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Dodger Stadium has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. The weather report projects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Clayton Kershaw throws from, J.T. Realmuto will have the upper hand in today's game.

Nick Castellanos's batting average ability is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Dodger Stadium has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. The weather report projects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Nick Castellanos will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Clayton Kershaw today. Nick Castellanos has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .240 rate is a good deal lower than his .257 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Alec Bohm's batting average ability is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alec Bohm is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. The weather report projects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Alec Bohm will have an advantage in today's game. Alec Bohm has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 93.9-mph in the last 14 days.

Dodger Stadium has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. The weather report projects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Nick Ahmed will have the upper hand in today's game. Among every team today, the 8th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Nick Ahmed will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Teoscar Hernandez has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Teoscar Hernandez has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 14.6% seasonal rate to 20% over the last 7 days. Teoscar Hernandez has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph dropping to 79.5-mph over the past 7 days.

The weather report projects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Kike Hernandez will hold the platoon advantage over Cristopher Sanchez today. Kike Hernandez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 9th-shallowest CF fences today. Among every team today, the 8th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Kike Hernandez will hold that advantage today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Schwarber ranks as the 20th-best hitter in Major League Baseball. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game. The weather report projects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Kyle Schwarber has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 13% seasonal rate to 29.2% in the last two weeks. Over the past two weeks, Kyle Schwarber's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 97.2-mph over the course of the season to 100.4-mph in recent games.

Dodger Stadium has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in the majors. The weather report projects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Austin Hays will have an edge today. Austin Hays's launch angle lately (25.1° in the last 14 days) is significantly higher than his 14.2° seasonal angle. Austin Hays has hit one of the hardest balls in MLB in the last week's worth of games — 108.5-mph — which is a good measure of recent form and raw power.

Garrett Stubbs has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.