Tampa Bay @ Houston Picks & Props

Minute Maid Park has the shallowest fences among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers. Last season, Dylan Carlson had an average launch angle of 15° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 24.4°. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Dylan Carlson's true offensive talent to be a .305, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .063 disparity between that mark and his actual .242 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 89th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Jose Siri has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (92% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Jose Siri pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jose Siri has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 101.6-mph over the last week. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.334) implies that Jose Siri has been unlucky this year with his .286 actual wOBA.

Minute Maid Park profiles as the #22 venue in MLB for righty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league parks, which often leads to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Today, Yainer Diaz is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35% rate (84th percentile). When it comes to plate discipline, Yainer Diaz's skill is quite poor, sporting a 3.65 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 25th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 11th-best hitter in the league when estimating his batting average skill. Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today. In the last two weeks, Yandy Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.2-mph over the course of the season to 99.5-mph lately. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Yandy Diaz's true offensive ability to be a .347, suggesting that he has been unlucky this year given the .024 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .323 wOBA. In notching a .271 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Yandy Diaz is ranked in the 81st percentile.

Curtis Mead's batting average skill is projected to be in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Curtis Mead has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Curtis Mead has had bad variance on his side this year. His .280 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .317. Curtis Mead ranks in the 76th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (45.3% rate since the start of last season). By putting up a .338 BABIP since the start of last season, Curtis Mead grades out in the 88th percentile.

The shallowest LF fences among all stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park. Pedro Leon will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Bigge today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Pedro Leon will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 84th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Bigge throws from, Chas McCormick will have an edge in today's game. Chas McCormick will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Chas McCormick's launch angle lately (20.5° in the past two weeks) is significantly better than his 15° seasonal figure. Chas McCormick has been unlucky this year, notching a .266 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .313 — a .047 discrepancy.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Christopher Morel ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.9% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Christopher Morel has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 12.3% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the last week's worth of games. Over the last week, Christopher Morel's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.7-mph over the course of the season to 106.1-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 76th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. The shallowest LF fences among all stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park. Jake Meyers will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Bigge in today's matchup. Jake Meyers will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Jake Meyers's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 40% to 47.2%.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Yordan Alvarez's launch angle of late (25.8° in the last week's worth of games) is significantly higher than his 18.7° seasonal figure. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Yordan Alvarez's true offensive ability to be a .409, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .028 disparity between that figure and his actual .381 wOBA.

Jose Caballero has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (94% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. Jose Caballero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.9% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 39.5% to 46%.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. Batting from the opposite that Spencer Arrighetti throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an edge in today's matchup. Last year, Brandon Lowe had an average launch angle of 13.9° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 20.9°. In the last two weeks, Brandon Lowe's 25.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Jeremy Pena is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The shallowest LF fences among all stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park. Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Bigge throws from, Jeremy Pena will have an advantage in today's matchup. Jeremy Pena will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 92nd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game. Jose Altuve will hold the platoon advantage against Hunter Bigge in today's matchup. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage in today's game.

Ben Rortvedt will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Spencer Arrighetti today. Posting a .356 BABIP this year, Ben Rortvedt is positioned in the 91st percentile.

Minute Maid Park has the shallowest fences among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 84th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Bigge throws from, Mauricio Dubon will have an edge in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Mauricio Dubon will hold that advantage in today's game. Mauricio Dubon has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 91.8-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 86.4-mph mark. In the last 14 days, Mauricio Dubon has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 26.4° compared to his seasonal mark of 7.7°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Alex Bregman is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Alex Bregman will have the handedness advantage over Hunter Bigge in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage in today's game. Alex Bregman's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, going from 42.2% on the season to 50% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Jon Singleton will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Jon Singleton has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 92.6-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 89.3-mph average. Jon Singleton's maximum exit velocity (a reliable stat to evaluate power) has been 115.4 mph this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.